February 29, 2004
60-40 VISION:
California election foreshadows November (George Will, February 29, 2004, Townhall)
Chaos theory suggests that the beating of a butterfly's wings in Brazil can set in motion effects that include, in time, a tornado in Topeka. Imagine a possible butterfly effect from Californians' votes on Tuesday.
Reverberations might help President Bush become competitive for the state's 55 electoral votes, forcing his opponent to at least spend significant time and money here.Disregard the Democrats' presidential primary. Begin with the Republican primary to pick an opponent for Sen. Barbara Boxer, a San Francisco liberal seeking a third term.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, succumbing to the vice of gratitude, endorsed Bill Jones, the former secretary of state who did Schwarzenegger (and himself) the favor of not running for governor during the recall of Gov. Gray
Davis. Jones, a right-to-life conservative, has decent name identification -- he has run statewide three times -- yet looks like a probable loser in this socially liberal state.But suppose Republican voters -- a recent poll showed half of them undecided -- create the year's most mesmerizing Senate race by nominating Rosario Marin. She is the 45-year-old former U.S. Treasurer and mayor of Huntington Park, a 95 percent Latino town of 60,000 in southeast Los Angeles County, where Democrats have a 5-to-1 registration advantage.
Today, when biography serves as political philosophy, Marin's suits this nation within the nation.
Anyone seen any polling? When the Governor made his endorsement she wasn't doing to well. Posted by Orrin Judd at February 29, 2004 9:29 AM
latest field poll
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2110.pdf
Jones will probably win the GOP nod. I think any of them have a shot at Boxer, she is only 48 /38 against Jones.
IMO, if Califorinia becomes competitive for Bush, the Kerry is toast nationally, based upon being forced to spend for CA.
Posted by: BB at February 29, 2004 11:32 AMOT.... or not OT given the 60-40 title...
An I correct in that the number of US troops attacked and/or killed in Iraq has plummeted over the past two weeks? I don't seem to see ugly reports coming out of Iraq.
Given that this is true... isn't it interesting how the media is all over this stunning change in the facts on the ground, loaded with video of US troops NOT being attacked?
Isn't that interesting?
Posted by: Andrew X at February 29, 2004 12:15 PMOh Andrew, don't you know that the focus now is attacks on Shiites or Kurds. Well, that's what's all wong about this darned war: it has opened the door for innocent Iraqis being victimized by someone other than Saddam's regime. Of course, back then that was not the issue, which if I recall was whether Kofi had actually called for closure on Syria's motion to....when W. got all unilateral about the whole thing. I predict that this summer the issue will be whether Iraq's football team would have done better in Greece under the watchful eye and sponsorpship of Uday. And who are we to say that beating players after missing penalty shots (or was it shooting players as a penalty?) is bad? Doesn't Bobby Knight do stuff like that?
Posted by: MG at February 29, 2004 1:18 PMMG
Yes Bobby Knight does do that sort of thing.
Jones will probably get the nod. The name recognition is a plus, but I don't think he can beat Boxer. One problem here has been the Republican Party's inability to promote potential leaders on the way up, like Rosario Marin. Media coverage of State and local issues has always been poor, and the outlets here are even more Left-biased than elsewhere. Granted, it's a tough job, but one that has to be done better. Now, one more time, we find ourselves nine months before an election having to choose between a solid but uninspiring career politician and a promising but unknown newcomer.
As to California being back in play for Bush -- too early to tell, but the gay marriage issue is certainly started moving things his way. A lot of us are hoping that Arnold proves to have coattails.
Posted by: Dave in L.A. at February 29, 2004 2:32 PMPicking Jones might be a wrong move by the GOP. But if it is 48-38 now and Jones gets support from Arnold and Marin, Bush does well in the state, and Jones runs a good race he might do it.
Posted by: AWW at February 29, 2004 9:30 PMAnother point - looking at the poll Boxer is below 50 vs Jones and barely above 50 against the others. An incumbent, particularly a multiple term one, polling below 50 is usually considered pretty vulnerable.
Posted by: AWW at February 29, 2004 11:58 PM