February 3, 2004
50-0:
Latest readings on recovery solid (ADAM GELLER, February 3, 2004, Chicago Sun-Times)
The economic recovery is showing new signs of staying power, a trio of reports said Monday, with a pickup at the nation's factories complemented by robust consumer spending and construction activity.The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 63.6 in January from a revised 63.4 in December. The reading, the highest since 69.9 in December 1983, signals a recovery that is broadening across manufacturing industries, although it is still not generating many new jobs, analysts said.
In other economic news, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending rose by 0.4 percent in December, after a 0.5 percent rise the previous month. The November reading was better than the government previously estimated.
Consumer spending rose solidly in both November and December, better than earlier in the fall when spending was flat.
The government also reported Monday that construction spending in December rose to its highest level ever. The total value of building projects under way rose 0.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $933.2 billion. Residential projects by private builders led the way, with spending on those projects also rising to a record monthly high.
These figures, not poll numbers, are all you need to know about what's going to happen in November
MORE:
Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2003 (The Effect of Economc Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update, Ray C. Fair, November 1, 2002)
The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively. The current predictions from the US model (October 31, 2003) are 2.4 percent, 1.9 percent, and 3. The only significant change concerns the GOODNEWS prediction. The previous quarter (2003:3) turned out to be a good news quarter, and the US model is predicting that the current quarter (2003:4) will also be a good news quarter. Neither of these quarters before was predicted to be a good news quarter. Each good news quarter adds 0.837 percentage points to the incumbent vote share, so two extra good news quarters adds 1.674 percentage points for President Bush. The new economic values give a prediction of 58.3 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 56.7 percent before. This does not, however, change the main story that the equation has been making from the beginning, namely that President Bush is predicted to win by a sizable margin. The margin is just now even larger than before.Posted by Orrin Judd at February 3, 2004 10:26 AM
Agree that continued improvement in the job market (should know end of this week how the employment situation is) and stock market should be better indicators of the election than some polls.
Here in the liberal east coast many are jumping up and down over the poll numbers of Kerry beating Bush. I remind them that Mondale was beating Reagan in early '84 and Dukakis was beating Bush Sr in late summer '92 but they don't want to listen.
Whenever I get a little down due to the recent polls I figure the voters aren't going to throw a president who is stong on defense with an improving economy for a weak on defense and questionable policies.
I think you mean '88 for Bush Sr./Dukakis, AWW. Poor Bush Sr. lost it all in '92 and he probably polled over Clinton at this time of the year, too.
I have also been a bit panicky over the polls. I really hope people are not stupid enough to dismiss the War on Terror by electing one of these dem candidates -- no matter how much they might disagree with Bush's spending.
Posted by: NKR at February 3, 2004 11:56 AMNKR - yes I meant '88.
I have the same fear as you that the electorate, with help from the media, ignores the WOT and focuses on issues that the Dems can win on (more govt. spending)
I wish I could be as optimistic as Orrin. Just got back from a weekend in Washington state, and found sentiment among my socially conservative friends running from soft Bush support to hard Bush opposition.
Of course, that is a report from the left coast, and my extended family there remains solidly in the Bush column.
Still...
Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller at February 3, 2004 12:53 PMAnthony - what was the cause of the soft support/against? the war? the economy? the spending? social issues like abortions? depending on the answer(s) their support may strengthen/come back to Bush before the election.
Posted by: AWW at February 3, 2004 1:41 PMAWW,
There were three responses.
1) Uninformed: One friend had heard that Bush was pulling a Bush Sr. and rejiggering the marriage penalty to the detriment of families. I talked him out of that; he then said that if his tax bill was low enough this year he'd vote Bush. Incidentally, he was largely pro-Iraq war.
2) Teacher in the family: Called "No Child Left Behind" largely "No School Left Unpunished." (He teaches in a largely minority district in Seattle.) Couldn't help him much there, though I may have convinced him that Bush's environmental record isn't what the media and Dems say it is.
3) Socially conservative, economically liberal (yes, they do exist). This one was so viscerally against the war that I was stunned. Got in some good points, but don't expect him to pull the R lever.
Anyways. Anecdotes may not mean much, but bear in mind most all my friends are conservative (#3 even a Free Methodist pastor).
Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller at February 3, 2004 2:31 PMAnthony --
Soon you will also have the help of responsing with, and what will Kerry do for you. On that basis #1 is a lock; #3 will have to decide what eing a social conservative means if he is going to vote for Kerry; #2, a good teacher, should at least pledge not to promote ignorance in Capitol Hill by returning Osama Mama to the Senate.
Posted by: MG at February 3, 2004 4:24 PM