TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT CALL IT:

Ready, set, go; time to pick (JANE NORMAN, 01/19/2004, Des Moines Register)

At last, the night of decision has arrived.

Iowa Democrats will gather at 6:30 p.m. to select their favorite in the race for the presidential nomination, throwing open the starting gate for a gallop toward the national convention in Boston in July.

Republicans also will congregate in caucus sites to show support for President Bush and, in some cases, to hear speeches by national party leaders. But the spotlight is on the Democrats, who are choosing from among eight candidates.

Gordon Fischer, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said that the party is ready to accurately report the outcome of 1,993 precinct caucuses drawing an expected 100,000 Iowans and media attention from around the world.

State Democrats have spent $750,000 to prepare a high-tech reporting system to tally results arrived at by Iowans meeting in community centers, libraries and church basements across the state.

"Everything we are doing we've tested, and tested, and re-tested," said Fischer, who was featured on an ABC news show Sunday morning showing off the party's red-white-and-blue setup at the Polk County Convention Complex. "We feel very well prepared."

Results are expected by 9 p.m. or a little later.
Real Clear Politics has late polls, which show John Kerry passing Howard Dean and John Edwards passing Dick Gephardt, but the science of polling caucus goers is notoriously sketchy. The one thing that seems clear is that Dick Gephardt is the only candidate who could be eliminated here and whoever wins will have such a low % as to make it impossible to consider them any kind of favorite. Most likely order of finish:

Howard Dean

Dick Gephardt

John Kerry

John Edwards

MORE:
Organization will be key to victory (DAVID YEPSEN, 01/19/2004, Des Moines Register)

If organization is as important as caucus lore tells us it is, Howard Dean should win the Iowa caucuses tonight. Driven by youthful energy and anti-war activism not seen since the Vietnam War, Dean has assembled what his organizers claim is the best get-out-the-vote operation ever built in the state.

They are probably correct. As the campaign draws to a close today, the important story isn't the candidates and their hoopla. It's their organizations and their boring grunt work on the streets and telephones of Iowa.

Given that recent polls of the race show the contest has tightened, Dean hopes his operation provides him with the political firewall he needs to protect himself against the late surges by John Kerry and John Edwards. A Dean win in Iowa tonight would be devastating to the early front-runner here, Dick Gephardt.

-Here's how Iowa caucuses work (JIM MORRILL, 1/11/04, Charlotte Observer)
-Fox News: You Decide 2004
-NY Times: Campaign 2004
-USA Today: Politics 2004
-CS Monitor: Decision 2004
-LA Times: 2004 Elections
-TIME.com: Elections 2004
-Iowa Squeaker Could Complicate Rather Than Clarify Campaigns (Ronald Brownstein, January 18, 2004, LA Times)

The Iowa caucuses are supposed to provide the first answers in the presidential nomination race. But this year, they may only supply questions. [...]

Depending on the order of finish, all of the major candidates who competed here — former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Sens. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina — could wake up Tuesday with enough strength and credibility to sustain their campaigns.

A pile-up finish in Iowa would immediately increase the incentive for these contenders to open fire on retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark, who has built a powerful wave of momentum in New Hampshire while ignoring the caucuses. Such attacks, on issues from Clark's previous votes for Republican presidents to his work as a lobbyist, are escalating even before the Iowa race concludes.

"I think Wesley Clark will quickly become the issue in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire," said a senior advisor to one of the other Democrats. "People look at him, in military terms, as a very soft target."

- With Hopes Up and Elbows Out, Democrats Give Iowa Their All (ADAM NAGOURNEY and JIM RUTENBERG, 1/19/04, NY Times)
-Key precinct reflects wider caucus drama (Rick Klein, 1/19/2004, Boston Globe)

In this battleground neighborhood, one of Iowa's most diverse in terms of ethnicity and income, the four top candidates are all banking on strong turnouts from their key constituencies.

There's also significant support for a fifth candidate, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich, setting the stage for possible vote-swapping when Democrats meet at Roosevelt High School's library for their caucus. With hours to go before the big event, no one can guess what will happen in Precinct 55 -- or the rest of the state, for that matter.

"I don't have any idea how to predict this thing," said Joe Walsh, a 33-year-old attorney who is serving as precinct captain for Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri.

Tonight, the battle for Iowa supremacy will be fought at 1,992 other caucus sites -- recreation centers, churches, schools, even a handful of living rooms in rural communities. Turnout is all-important for the candidates.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 19, 2004 8:15 AM