January 2, 2004
THE TEST:
The year before the year reality sets in (George Will, 1/02/04, Jewish World Review)
It is the year before the year in which Democrats probably will have one of their agonizing reappraisals. And it is the year before the year in which Republicans, having come to terms with the fact that the welfare state is here to stay, will prove that they are, or are not, serious about governing it.When you turned the page on the calendar Wednesday night, the first page of 2004 should have had printed -- in large letters, in red ink -- this insomnia-producing warning: "DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY AND IT IS NOW JUST FOUR YEARS BEFORE THE DEMOGRAPHIC DELUGE -- THE BEGINNING OF THE RETIREMENT OF 77 MILLION BABY BOOMERS."
Fortunately, Democrats seem determined to nominate an angry apostle of reactionary liberalism, ready to die on the barricades in defense of the unsustainable Medicare and Social Security status quos. If Democrats do that, the electoral aftermath could be a creative moment for welfare state reform.
Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in 1964 created in Congress something that had not existed since 1938 -- a liberal legislative majority. It lasted only two years, but it did much. Howard Dean could be the catalyst of a conservative legislative majority which, although probably evanescent, might be emboldened to begin coming to grips with this...
It is a moment that requires a leader of exactly the kind of riverboat gambler mentality that Mr. Bush possesses in spades. In 2005, the GOP will either radically transform the nature of the state--via private accounts and such--or prove itself as unworthy of power as Bill Clinton did when handed an equally golden opportunity in 1995. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 2, 2004 11:38 AM
As someone whose future livelihood will in all likelihood be at least somewhat yoked to the fortunes of the NIH budget, I never know what to think about this... Should I favor the GOP, who in principle are anti-gov't spending but in practive relatively favorable to science, or the Dems, who are pro-science in principle but in practice most interested in payouts to seniors? As the demographics crisis hits, which party will be likelier to gouge the NIH in favor of Medicare? Decisions, decisions...
Posted by: Charlie Murtaugh at January 2, 2004 3:50 PMIf we get really lucky, productivity gains will continue at such a pace as to make society's financial pain from the Boomer's retirement no more than that of previous generations.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at January 3, 2004 4:28 AMOne minor Quibble: CLinton's "opportunity" was handed to him in '92, not '95, by '95 he had lost both houses to the "Contract with America"
Posted by: MarkD at January 3, 2004 8:53 PMMark:
No, that created the opportunity. The run of the mill Democrats will never allow such reform, but a man of true vision could have worked with the GOP to do it.
Posted by: oj at January 3, 2004 11:38 PM