THE ARNOLDIZATION OF CALIFORNIA:

The Buzz: Recall stats a cautionary tale for Democrats (Dan Smith, January 19, 2004, Sacramento Bee)

The semiofficial results are in, and about 20 Assembly Democrats may be looking over their shoulders a little more than usual after the Oct. 7 recall election.

Election statistics compiled by the Assembly Republican Caucus show the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis prevailed in 18 of the 48 Democratic-held Assembly districts. Current Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the top vote-getter in 23 Democratic districts.

Perhaps the most interesting -- at least to Republicans hoping to gain ground in the lower house this year -- are the five Democratic districts in which the percentage of votes for both the recall and Schwarzenegger exceeded the final statewide tallies.

Representing districts in that category are Democratic Assembly members Rudy Bermudez of Norwalk, Lloyd Levine of Van Nuys, Alan Lowenthal of Long Beach, Gloria Negrete McLeod of Chino and Nicole Parra of Hanford, according to the GOP statistics.

Republican strategist Tony Quinn, who has assessed the vulnerability of Assembly districts for years, said the recall may have forced three areas ringing Southern California -- Long Beach/Palos Verdes, Ontario and parts of the San Fernando Valley -- back toward the GOP. The three areas have swung between parties for decades, he said, triggered by Watergate in 1974, Proposition 13 in 1978 and a backlash to Proposition 187 in 1996.

All the Red are secure; all the Blue are in play.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 19, 2004 10:38 AM