PROMISING:

You do the maths: Despite its shortcomings, President Uribe's security push has achieved some promising results (The Economist, Jan 8th 2004)

AFTER months of effort by Colombian agents aided by the United States, Ricardo Palmera (above) was finally arrested in Ecuador on January 2nd. Mr Palmera, whose nom de guerre is Simón Trinidad, is the most senior leader of the FARC, Colombia's main rebel group, to be captured during its long war with the government in Bogotá. His capture is a symbolic victory for President Álvaro Uribe; and partly because of America's help, there have been many other (if less dramatic) gains. [...]

Colombia will remain a violent country for years to come: the drug trade will see to that. Yet the president's “democratic security” policy has indeed notched up some impressive results. Colombia's overall murder rate fell to around 50 per 100,000 people in 2003—still high by international standards, but the lowest figure since 1986, according to Fundación Seguridad y Democracia (FSD), a Bogotá consultancy. For the first time in recent years, the number of new internal refugees caused by the violence fell substantially, to 156,188. According to new government figures, there were a mere 2,043 kidnappings in 2003, down from 2,986 in 2002.

Meanwhile, the security forces have been busy: they fought more than 2,300 battles with the irregular armies (up from 1,338 in 2002), losing 523 dead while killing 2,980, according to FSD figures. And a massive campaign of aerial spraying has cut the cultivation of drug crops, on which the rebels rely for income.

Behind the figures lies a big security build-up, supported by American aid totalling around $2.5 billion since 2000. President Uribe's strategy has two main elements. First, the armed forces have taken the offensive. In the second half of 2003, the army and air force did much damage to FARC units in north-western Colombia, around Bogotá and Medellín. They killed or forced the surrender of half a dozen mid-level guerrilla commanders. This has helped to blunt FARC's efforts to mount an urban bombing campaign.

Second, the government is attempting to recapture territory, and establish a presence throughout the country. A plan to expand the police was completed last month, with contingents placed in all 158 municipalities that lacked them when the president took office in August 2002—no small matter in a country more than twice the size of France. In some places, the police are being backed up by a new force of local part-time “peasant soldiers”.

Ordinary Colombians feel safer, and, partly as a result, the economy is reviving. GDP grew by an estimated 3.2% last year, the best posting since 1997. Juan Carlos Echeverry of LatinSource, a New York-based consultancy, points out that the capital flight of recent years has now been reversed, and investment and imports of capital goods are both growing.

Easy to focus on the backsliding in South America, but Mr. Uribe has emerged as a real superstar.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 10, 2004 7:31 PM