January 12, 2004
65-35 FILES:
Looking beyond 2004 (Bruce Walker, January 12, 2004, Enter Stage Right)
Many pundits view likely Republican senate gains in 2004 as part of the cycle which this year favors Republicans. That is wishful thinking. The 2006 senate races looks even worse for Democrats. Six freshmen Democrats in 2000 - Nelson of Florida, Nelson of Nebraska, Dayton of Minnesota, Cantwell of Washington, Strabenow of Michigan and Corzine of New Jersey - won election by 51 per cent or less. Three of those six - Cantwell, Strabenow and Dayton - actually received a minority of the popular vote (no Republican senate candidates did in 2000.)Only one Republican senate candidate in 2006 had a close race in 2000, and that was Conrad Burns of Montana. Unlike the six vulnerable Democrats, who will be seeking reelection in 2006 as freshmen senators of the minority party, Burns will be seeking reelection as the veteran senator of the majority party in a conservative and Republican state.
That understates the problem of Senate Democrats. Hillary Clinton will be a lightning rod for Republicans in 2006. Rudy Giuliani probably run hard for her seat, because winning could easily get him in the White House. John Kerry in Massachusetts and Diane Feinstein in California may well retire in 2006, and right now both states have popular Republican governors.
Ben Nelson of NE is probably the most likely politician in America to switch parties in November 2004 and one of those Democrats likely to endorse George W. Bush. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 12, 2004 4:03 PM
Last time I read, Cantwell was in deep financial trouble following the bubble burst - although she may have recovered some by now. If Murray loses this time, maybe she'll retire.
Stabenow seems to be a bit abrasive (on C-SPAN) and should be vulnerable.
Corzine is a senator for life - his margin was low in 2000 only because many voters were turned off by the $66 million he spent to win the seat. He and Schumer are the up-and-coming Democratic leaders in the Senate; if Daschle (and Reid) loses, one of them will replace him, unless Hillary wants the exposure of being Minority Leader. The Dems could choose someone like Pryor or Conrad if they want to go rural, but I can't see that happening. Daschle was already plugged into DC because his wife is a prime lobbyist.
Dayton should be vulnerable - another big spender to get the seat - but he does not resonate with common voters. And MN is trending Republican.
Posted by: jim hamlen at January 12, 2004 4:30 PMBiy does this bring back the agony of the '98 elections. Watching Dayton, Cantwell, and Corzine buy elections (as one mega millionares can) running under the banner of the party of the little guy just killed me. Seeing the three live up (and exceed, at least Corzine) expectations of how liberal a mega millionare could be) has just added insult to injury.
That said:
NJ is beyond reach for the GOP (unless McGreevey and the stateside Dems blow up before that). A state that gave Lautenerg a double-digit win against the Rep tide in 2002 does not hold much hope when the incumbent will spend the GDP of a small country to win the seat.
Cantwell's fate could be decided by what happens to Murray in 2004. Murray is so much weaker, and 2004 may be a harder Dem year. If Murray wins, why should not Cantwell.
Dayton could be in trouble in a state that is trending away from Dem. GOP should start building credible candidates and focus on one.
Nelson of FL should have been Kathernine Harris' objective -- more tenure in the House, 200 farther in history, and WH not in the way. Is annoying there is such a crowd this year for Graham's seat.
If Nelson of NE is to switch, it will be most likely, after the nomination of a left a Howard Dean, but before November after endorsing W. Switching after the election seems low class; switching before they have a candidate a bit insulting.
Posted by: MG at January 12, 2004 4:31 PMWhat happens to Katherine Harris if Bill Nelson switches to the Republicans before she can challenge him?
Posted by: James Haney at January 12, 2004 5:46 PMJames,
Is a switch by Bill Nelson even a possibility? I have seen speculation of Ben Nelson but not Bill. (Of course, may be W. if working on him with all this Mars stuff!)
Posted by: MG at January 12, 2004 5:52 PMStabenow isn't in any danger in MI, we have too many women voters who vote for women just because they're women, and too many Union workers who vote the Union line like sheep. As has been mentioned above, Jersey will never elect a Republican if they'd elect Lautenberg even after blatant election fraud. If Rudy wanted a Senate Seat, he wouldn't wait for Hillary's seat, he'd run against Schumer now and beat him like a red-headed stepchild, he'll look to the governor chair, and face Hillary for Pres in '08 rather than the Senate in '06. Don't count on any part switchers, but modest gains both years will have the GOP with 60 seats after '06.
Posted by: MarkD at January 12, 2004 9:52 PM