PERPLEXED, IN D.C.:

Gore's Puzzling Intervention (David S. Broder, December 11, 2003, Washington Post)

Some, however, may wonder how much confidence to place in Gore's political judgment. This is the man, after all, who lost the White House in a time of peace and prosperity, a strategist who refused to permit President Clinton even to campaign for him in New Hampshire, West Virginia or Florida -- all Clinton states, any one of which would have given Democrats the victory.

Gore said he had been impressed by Dean's grass-roots support, and indeed the campaign has been brilliant in mobilizing volunteers and contributors on a scale no one else has come close to matching. But Kohut's survey shows that support is based on a very well-defined constituency.

As he put it, "Dean's advantage is bolstered by his strong appeal to the well-educated liberal wing of the party in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nearly half of Dean's Iowa supporters are college graduates and far more describe themselves as liberals (38 percent) than conservatives (17 percent)." The Dean supporters are notable not just for the vehemence of their opposition to the Iraq war but also for their support of gay marriage and for their variance from national norms of religious belief. Forty percent of the Dean supporters in New Hampshire, his strongest state, say they seldom or never attend church.

As Gore knows well, one of the great divides in 2000 was between regular churchgoers, who went heavily for Bush, and the less-churched, who voted Democratic. And Gore was a candidate, unlike Dean, who spoke openly and often about the role of religion in his own life.

Thus far, despite his glowing notices, Dean has failed to dominate any of the Democratic candidate debates. On Tuesday, while basking in the Gore endorsement, he virtually disappeared for long periods, while long shots such as Dennis Kucinich made their rhetorical points.

The problem for the Democratic activists is that Dean's limited appeal is limited to them. From inside the echo chamber it seems resounding support.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 11, 2003 10:43 AM