December 23, 2003

INSUFFICIENT (via Mike Daley):

Europe's problem is that it's barren (Mark Steyn, 23/12/2003, Daily Telegraph)

To those of us watching from afar the ructions over the European constitution - a 1970s solution to a 1940s problem - it seems amazing that no Continental politician is willing to get to grips with the real crisis facing Europe in the 21st century: the lack of Europeans. If America believes in the separation of church and state, in radically secularist Europe the state is the church, as Jacques Chirac's edict on headscarves, crucifixes and skull caps made plain. Alas, it's an insufficient faith.

By contrast, if Christianity is merely a "myth", it's a perfectly constructed one, beginning with the decision to establish Christ's divinity in the miracle of His birth. The obligation to have children may be a lot of repressive Catholic mumbo-jumbo, but it's also highly rational. What's irrational is modern EUtopia's indifference to new life.

I recently had a conversation with an EU official who, apropos a controversial proposal to tout the Continent's religious heritage in the new constitution, kept using the phrase "Europe's post-Christian future". The evidence suggests that, once you reach the post-Christian stage, you don't have much of a future.


What's most interesting is that their decision to voluntarily die out seems to contradict one of their dearest rationalist myths: Darwinism.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 23, 2003 7:51 AM
Comments

Not at all; 'darwinism' merely says that if they won't breed, they'll be replaced by somebody who will.

Posted by: Mike Earl at December 23, 2003 10:52 AM

So there are no natural survival pressures; it's all volitional?

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 10:59 AM

OJ,Bangledeshi's have large families because children are their safety net and retirement plan.
Both are provided to the euros by the state,so children,as in Hollywood,become staus symbols to satisfy a vague biological need and to follow fads.

Posted by: M. at December 23, 2003 11:20 AM

M:

So Darwinism is nothing more than a "vague biological need", yet it created life on Earth and gave it all its current form?

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 11:27 AM

Men and women are programed to procreate.We aren't programed for a specific number of procreations.The career minded western woman,who believes the state has secured her future,will be satisfied with 1 or 2 children to fulfill the biological urge.Men aren't that different in the urge department.Of course,there is a trend of career women now choosing to be stay at home moms.Among the very upscale,ironicly,a husband whose income allows the wife to stay at home while still affording an upper class life style is now a hotly sought after commodity.

Posted by: M. at December 23, 2003 11:43 AM

We're supposed to be programmed to strive for survival of our genes/species/whatever. A Europe reproducing at 1.2 per woman as a rival race takes over can hardly be said to be surviving.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 11:48 AM

More than 99.9% of all species that ever lived are extinct.

Nothing about our following them will contradict Darwinism in any way.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 23, 2003 12:02 PM

'We're supposed to be programmed to strive for survival of our genes/species/whatever.'

And at the moment 1.2 children seem to satisfy that need.If a woman has nore children,she must spend more resources on them and less on herself,not popular in a hedonistic culture.

Humans are short term thinkers,Europeans aren't feeling reproductive pressure,but there has been an uptick in euro birth rates,France in particular.Not huge but there.And let me point out,no one predicted the post WW2 baby boom here.
Demographic (or really any other)projections aren't really of much use as they are based on current trends and linear projections.

Posted by: M. at December 23, 2003 12:37 PM

OJ
Our behaviors have been programmed for survival in a certain environment. When you alter that environment, the behaviors don't always work the same way. Look at moths. They evolved to navigate by moonlight, in an environment with no artificial light. Add streetlights, and they circle around aimlessly.

We are not programmed to strive for survival as a species, we are programmed to desire sex.

Posted by: Robert D at December 23, 2003 12:42 PM

Robert:

Explain then the rise of sexless marriages, reductions in teen sex, homosexuality, etc.?

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 1:12 PM

Jeff:

None were voluntary, until now.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 1:18 PM

"Explain then the rise of sexless marriages, reductions in teen sex, homosexuality, etc.?"

Exceptions that prove the rule?

Posted by: M. at December 23, 2003 1:37 PM

Which exceptions prove other scientific laws?

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 1:42 PM

Orrin, you are far too intelligent to continue to misunderstand that Darwinism does not require you to do anything, now that that has been explained to you.

If you are teasing that's one thing. If attempting to score debating points, you're not on the right track.

Fertility varied greatly during the period in Europe that you want us to return to. Sometimes the reasons seem obvious in retrospect -- people in England put off marriages in dearth years, as we can determine from parish registers -- but sometimes the reasons remain obscure.

Anyhow, Darwinism is like the camera at the finish line at the race track. It doesn't tell the jockey how to ride, it just determines who got to the finish first.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 23, 2003 2:34 PM

So like that camera it can make no claim about why someone won, only that they did? So we can toss fitness altogether, right? The things that survived simply survived. Happenstance is as good a reason as any for that and so Darwinism explains nothing, merely noting that some things survive and some don't.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 4:13 PM

Uh huh. That would be the neo-platonist's interpretation. There are other ways to understand the world, though; and they work a lot better.

Inclusive fitness is not entirely predictable, because future conditions are not predictable. (It is, if not predictable, assessable. We don't disbelieve in real estate appraisers because values change over time.)

I understand why that gives you fits, but you should blame God, not Darwin. Darwin didn't set up the Universe.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 23, 2003 4:48 PM

Harry:

No, that vision of the way things work is fine. Nothing in Nature explains why things survive, but the intervention of Intelligence can be determinative.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 5:30 PM

Rather, nothing in nature predicts why things survive.

Explanation is more or less easy, once you've made enough observations.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 23, 2003 6:47 PM

Once it survives the explanation is that it was better adapted to survive--that's wholly circular and meaningless.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 6:58 PM

"None were voluntary, until now."

Nor will this one be, should it happen. The choice of how many children to have is at the personal level, extinction at the population level.

For an individual woman to choose to have three children does not mean she has chosen humans to crowd the earth so thoroughly as to have to stack the bodies in the Mariannas Trench. Which is precisely the outcome if that series, population wide, goes on long enough.

Similarly, for an individual woman to choose two, or one, or no children does not mean she has chosen extinction.

Perhaps you need to spend some time studying statistical principles.

"The intervention of Intelligence can be determinative." That would be circular, except circularity requires at least two points.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 23, 2003 7:12 PM

Survival, as Harry says, is either random or determined by intelligence.

Posted by: oj at December 23, 2003 7:22 PM

Re: Our safety net.

Our statements of Social Security status show our personal quarters worked, but the system is an obligation on our descentants. Shouldn't we qualify for benefits based on the earnings history of our family, so that the personal rewards align with social need to repoduce, as the old system did.

Posted by: Ripper at December 24, 2003 12:14 AM

Would it be meaningless to say that if the ice melted to water, it was because it got hot?

Of course not.

And I did not say the choice is between randomness and intelligence. It's between intelligence and selection. The randomness is in the environment. There's nothing random about selection.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 24, 2003 1:22 PM

If there is no standard for what is selected only the observation that some are and some aren't then selection is inherently random (or effected by intelligence) and Darwinism is robbed of the basis for propagating mutated forms. As fitness goes so goes Darwin.

Posted by: oj at December 24, 2003 1:28 PM

Oh, I can tell you what will be selected, once you tell me what the world will be like at any precise date in the future.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 24, 2003 8:07 PM

"...selection is inherently random...

I doubt you completely understand the concept of randomness.

Brownian motion is random.

Natural selection works even if there is only a small non-random component. And you most certainly cannot exclude non-random results based on the cross product of variation and environment.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 25, 2003 2:56 PM
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