FREE SHI'ASTAN:

Why the US should stick with the Shi'ites (Erich Marquardt, 12/11/03, Asia Times)

Much to the dismay of US officials, al-Sistani's demand for democratic elections to decide who will sit on the national assembly is an effort to give more power to Iraq's large Shi'ite Muslim community and less power to the US-led coalition. Iraqi Shi'ites make up 60 percent of the country's population, yet they have always been marginalized by Iraq's Sunni population who have functioned historically as the ruling class.

Al-Sistani is certainly aware that the best possible outcome for Iraq's Shi'ite majority would be if general elections were held to decide major political issues, such as the makeup of the national assembly; this would ensure significant Shi'ite influence over substantive content of Iraq's constitution. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a Shi'ite cleric and member of the IGC, agreed with al-Sistani's concerns, arguing that current US plans diminish "the role of the Iraqi people in the process of transferring authority to Iraqis".

Al-Sistani's disagreement over US plans is causing a serious dilemma for Bush administration policymakers. The difficulty with complying with al-Sistani's demands is that if Iraq were allowed to follow a thoroughly democratic path, it is likely that the new government would run counter to US interests. On the other hand, al-Sistani is too influential of a figure to ignore. Since he is the religious leader of most of Iraq's 15 million Shi'ites, he has the ability to completely disrupt civil society by simply calling his religious community to action.

Al-Sistani also has the support of other influential Shi'ite leaders in Iraq; in addition to al-Hakim, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi al-Modaresi, who is based in Karbala, argued on Tuesday that the national assembly should be elected through national elections rather than through regional caucuses. Al-Modaresi gave a strong message to the US-led coalition: "I am concerned about increasing frustration among Iraqis and I am telling everyone that they are a peaceful people. But it will be a different story if they run out of patience. I fear sedition."

Al-Modaresi's warning should be heeded. Iraqi Shi'ites have largely accepted the US-led occupation thus far. Their acceptance stems from the fact that if Iraq were to have democratic elections, Shi'ite leaders would take power simply because of their majority status. If US officials try to avoid this outcome - such as by rejecting al-Sistani and other Shi'ite leaders' recent demands - the Shi'ite community could quickly resort to violence, fearing a return to political disenfranchisement. Needless to say, if the huge Iraqi Shi'ite population were to revolt, it would cause the situation on the ground to deteriorate rapidly for US-led forces.

It's their country--let them run it.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 10, 2003 4:38 PM