December 2, 2003
DAM BUSTERS:
A growing political force to be reckoned with: black Republicans (Rod Thomson, Dec 1, 2003, Sarasota Herald-Tribune)
The ballroom of the Hyatt in downtown Sarasota was filled to capacity with 200 people at a $75-per-plate dinner. Typical Republican shindig, except for one thing: Most of the attendees were black. The occasion was the first inaugural banquet of the SaraMana Black Republican Club.There is the sound of distant thunder in the two-party political alignment that is as real in Sarasota as anywhere in the country. Black voters, in small but growing numbers, are beginning to consider the Republican Party.
It sounds laughable at first blush. The Democratic Party has relied on about 90 percent, unquestioning black support for decades. But it is quite real, and could have stunning consequences for the balance of political power in the country. [...]A study from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies last year found that in the previous two years, black support for Democrats dropped 11 percentage points, resulting in less than two-thirds calling themselves Democrats. Meanwhile, support for Republicans more than doubled among black voters, from 4 percent to 10 percent.
That is still a small percentage, but it does represent a 150 percent increase. Further, the largest Republican support comes from the youngest segment of black voters – the future.
If Sarasota is any indication, this trickle one day could turn into a dam-break.
Even if it pays no immediate dividends, George W. Bush should just relentlessly court those constituencies and states that are considered the core of the Democratic Party. Make them defend their base and they'll never get to go on offense in this election--meanwhile there's at least a potential payoff down the road. After all, the GOP doesn't need to be competitive among blacks, Jews, etc., to win, but if it can boost its percentages just a bit among them (say, getting into the mid to high teens of the black vote) it becomes nigh unbeatable. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 2, 2003 7:14 AM
The Democrats have gotten so used to owning* the black vote that they can't live without it, and like the Red Queen, need to expend huge efforts to stay in the same place.
Republicans don't need for blacks to start voting for them. All they need is for blacks to stop having a reason to vote for the Democrats. Which explains the increasingly shrill Democratic painting of Republicans as anti-black bigots, for as soon as the black vote doesn't feel threatened by Republicans, they lose their primary motivation to bother to vote.
* A deliberate choice of words.
The Democrats' vulnerability on this point is one of the most under-reported stories in politics. An African-American on the GOP ticket, or a major Democratic switch to the GOP (i.e., Harold Ford - although that is OJ's dream, not a real possibility) would be the widening crack that could not be breached. The election of a Herman Cain or Cory Booker to a major office is a start down that path.
The Republicans have their vulnerabilites, too - no visible successor to Bush, no real ability to challenge such weak Senators as Carl Levin, Barbara Boxer, Byron Dorgan, Blanche Lincoln, etc. - but this doesn't threaten the viability of the party in the same way. Bush's second term will be very interesting as these things play out.
Posted by: jim hamlen at December 2, 2003 4:32 PMDoesn't Mr. Ford seem just ambitious enough to switch if he sees the GOP reigning for his whole career?
Posted by: oj at December 2, 2003 5:45 PMI don't understand the math. Assume for simplicity's sake that on average blacks cast 10% of the votes and give 10% of those to the GOP for a total of 1% of all votes cast. Let's say the GOP goes all out to attract black voters and raises its share of the black vote by 75% percent to 17.5%. That's a grand total of 0.75 percentage points more more. And what would the GOP have to do to make themselves 75% more popular among the most liberal group in the country?
In contrast, in 2000, GWB got only 54% of the white vote, which was 81% of all votes. His dad beat Dukakis by getting 59% of the white vote. If GWB raised his % of the white vote from 54% to 59% (an increase of less than 10% compared to growing the black vote by 75%), his share of the total would go up by over 4 percentage points.
Everybody likes to talk about how crucial it is to win more of minorities' votes, but, because they still count everybody's vote the same (at least for now), it's a lot more important to win more of the majority's vote.
Posted by: Steve Sailer at December 2, 2003 9:24 PM.75% mattered mightily in '60; '68; '76; & '00.
Posted by: oj at December 2, 2003 9:52 PMThe other reason an incremental increase matters so much is that the Democrats would never win another Senate election in the South, and probably not in MI, IL, MO, OH, possibly PA and WI, and maybe even NJ. That is a loss (right now) of 11 seats. And NY would be problematic as well. 2 more which makes 13. Scary, isn't it?