WHERE THE WAR ENDS:

The Real War on Terrorism Is in Pakistan, Not Iraq (Leon Hadar, 11/05/03, Cato.org)

[P]akistan, under President Pervez Musharraf -- the general who, in a coup, overthrew a democratically elected government -- and whose military and security services had served before 9/11 as the leading backer of the Taliban, seems to be undermining stability in neighboring Afghanistan. Pakistan also is reportedly harboring Islamic militants, fighting Indian forces in Kashmir and elsewhere, and playing an active role in the proliferation of nuclear weapons, which it has already developed -- unlike Iraq or Iran, the latter another member of the infamous Axis of Evil. Several respectable news outlets, including Newsweek, have reported that members of a resurgent Taliban, enjoying the support of Pashtun tribes as well as sympathetic Pakistani military officers led by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), are using Pakistan as a base for strikes against the U.S.-backed government in Kabul. In fact, some intelligence experts suspect that Osama bin Ladin and other al Qaeda and Taliban leaders may have found sanctuaries in the so-called Federally Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan.

At the same time, some members of the Pakistani security forces continue to provide assistance Islamic militant fighting against India's rule in Kahsmir. Indeed, U.S. officials admit that Musharraf has failed to crack down on those who support the fighters in Kashmir, who threaten to ignite war -- possibly one that could turn nuclear -- between Pakistan and India.

More of a concern for the United States is the growing evidence that Pakistan's nuclear program -- an arsenal believed to contain between 35 and 60 nuclear weapons -- may have become a source of technology for North Korea and Iran. Also, some evidence points to some Pakistani nuclear scientists maintaining ties to al Qaeda and other extremist Islamic groups. All of this suggests that under various scenarios, including the collapse of Musharraf's rule or a coup staged by radical Islamists, Pakistan could turn into a nuclear-armed ally of al Qaida.

Ironically, while Washington has been shoring up Pakistan's military regime and perpetuating Pakistan's mismanaged and corrupt economic system, the U.S. has refused to take a step that could help members of Pakistan's middle class and its Western-oriented entrepreneurs, open American markets to Pakistani textiles.

We'll get to Pakistan in its turn, but the war seems unlikely to pivot on free trade.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 7, 2003 3:51 PM