November 5, 2003

THE ONCE AND FUTURE ALLY:

Is Iran rethinking its position on Israel?: Twenty-four years ago, Arafat and the Ayatollah waltzed as they thundered that the "Islamic Revolution" would march until "the liberation of Jerusalem." But the winds of change are slowly becoming gusts of progress (Afshin Molavi & Karim Sadjadpour, 11/04/03, Jewish World Review)

In mid-June, Iranian youths staged a series of large rallies at Tehran University. Amid calls for greater democracy and freedom, one of the more popular slogans was: "Forget about Palestine! Think of us!" These two lines, delivered in rhyming, lilting Persian, encapsulate the sentiments of many young Iranians. In fact, though the West still thinks of Iran as a cauldron of anti-Israel passion, a new generation of pro-democracy Iranians increasingly speaks out against the government's seeming obsession with the Palestinians. And these youths are finding cohorts in an unlikely quarter: a group of senior conservative officials who are beginning to question the utility of Iran's close ties to anti-Israel groups.

Iranians under the age of 30 — who comprise more than two-thirds of the population today — express little interest in terrorist groups, anti-Zionism, and radical politics in general. In places where young people congregate, Iranians constantly question their government's support for terrorist groups. "I see the way people look at me when I travel," complained one young Iranian. "Immediately, they think, 'Watch out for the Iranian, he might be a terrorist.' I blame our government for cultivating this image by supporting radical groups." Meanwhile, on campuses, rumors abound that Palestinian militants and Hezbollah fighters are imported from Gaza and southern Lebanon to help quell recent student unrest — tales that make the groups even more unpopular. Reformist newspapers and reformist clerics have begun questioning Iran's hard-line stance on Israel. Abdollah Nouri, a former Interior minister and close confidant of Khomeini, has bluntly criticized the Islamic Republic's desire to act "more Palestinian than the Palestinians."

This disaffection with the Palestinian cause stems in part from many Iranians' frustration with Iran's economic and political problems. They see Iran's moribund economy partly as a result of the country's embrace of international radicalism, which has damaged foreign business ties. Many students have traded in Che Guevara posters, which used to hang in many dormitories as a sign of commitment to radicalism, for Microsoft ads. At cafes, conversations increasingly revolve around the need to find jobs and the push for more social freedoms, and some even use the disparaging term "Hezbollahi" (a Hezbollah type) to refer to anyone who is radical and violent. Even some older Iranians have grown weary of the Palestinization of foreign policy. At an earthquake site in northern Iran last year, a group of elderly victims complained bitterly about the government's slow response. "If the earthquake occurred in Palestine, they would have sent money and supplies. To us, they only give empty slogans," one said.


Unlike the Sunni, the Shi'a are already ripe for democracy.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2003 8:24 AM
Comments

I wasn't aware that the Iranian students movement was running the mullahcracy, Iranian foreign policy, or Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Wishful thinking-type article like this are much more dangerous even than they are absurd. Let they west believe that the mullahcracy is on the brink of falling, that Iran can't continue, that it must reform, that it's teetering, about to topple. And therefor let it topple of its own accord.

And meanwhile, in the underground weapons labs....

See:
http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/9956.htm

Posted by: Barry Meislin at November 5, 2003 9:24 AM

It's foolish to think that Solidarity can bring down Communism and meanwhile the USSR has nuclear stockpiles.

Posted by: OJ at November 5, 2003 9:34 AM

The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Posted by: David Cohen at November 5, 2003 9:39 AM

I don't give a fig what, if anything, they think about Israelis. They still congregate every week to chant "Death to America."

There are our enemies, they are not about to stop being our enemies and as soon as we understand that, we can formulate a policy.

Barry is exactly right.

No shi'ite that Orrin can name is for democracy as we understand it.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 5, 2003 3:20 PM

Those not convinced by the example of Yasser Arafat, Saddam, Kim, or the mullahs, may find that the following article sheds some some light on why one might like to think twice before trusting the honeyed and even sensible words of terror tyrants.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/cRosett/?id=110004257

Posted by: Barry Meislin at November 6, 2003 5:52 AM

Iran may be opposed to America, or to American society, but they aren't exactly "enemies". Until Iran directly or indirectly moves against America, Americans, or American interests, they're merely a country that really, really doesn't like us.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 6, 2003 9:20 AM

That comment does seem odd on the fact of it.
Depends on how you define "opposed," I guess.

One could always point out the Iran-Lebanese Shi'ite nexus (remember Beirut?), Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, the revolving door now-you-see-'em-now-you-don't policy vis a vis Al Qaida, the rather porous border control currently in effect on its western frontier, and the less than total transparency regarding its nuclear program (though yes, they are a pragmatic people looking ahead to the time when their supplies of fossil fuel run out).

And I suppose that the episode at the US embassy in Teheran was merely an adolescent tantrum. Or growing pains.

But they do make excellent films.

Posted by: Barry Meislin at November 6, 2003 12:10 PM
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