November 3, 2003
QUOTH THE CANARY--"THE COALMINE IS UNSAFE":
DUSK OVER JAPAN: A deadly lesson in education reform (Katsuo Hiizumi, 11/04/03, Asia Times)
[A] number of Chinese students now in Japan pursue activities not related to their studies. Indeed, many have simply used the opportunities granted to them by student status to seek side employment, and more than a few have become involved in criminal activities. [...]One of the root causes of these problems is Japan's demographic malaise. Japan is dying a slow death. Even now, the labor force is in decline. Starting in 2006, the overall population will begin its descent. By 2050, there will be fewer than 100 million Japanese people and some 40 percent will be over 65. Obviously, with increasingly fewer students, Japan no longer needs the same number of schools and teachers - unless, of course, a birth rate miracle occurs or the country opens itself up to immigration from the fast-growing countries in the rest of Asia, whether China or the Philippines.
But miracles, by definition, are unlikely, and Japan opening up to immigration would be a minor miracle in itself. Hence, the country will be forced to continue to live with and endure a situation in which foreign pseudo-students come to Japan in increasingly larger numbers because universities need them to justify their existence, while people in the provinces complain about growing crime and increases in social friction.
If Japan were a person, Michael Schiavo would pull its feeding tube. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 3, 2003 1:36 PM
Only if he had lots of yen coming his way.
Posted by: jim hamlen at November 3, 2003 3:07 PMoj:
You are right, there are lessons for America to learn, from Japan's current state of affairs.
However, Japanese and American societies are disparate enough that not all lessons apply. America will not have the immigration and demographic problems that Japan's currently working through.
The US certainly didn't remake itself during the "Rising Sun" scare of the 80s, and we were the better for it.
It's also a bit premature to consign Japan to the morgue. If, in fact, there are 100 million Japanese in 2050, that's still a considerable population. The problem isn't that the Japanese are going to disappear, it's that there will be an enormous percentage of elderly people to accomodate. Well, off the top of my head, I can think of four strategies to deal with the problem, although only one is currently politically possible.
If all you mean is that Japan will probably shrink in importance in world affairs, then I agree. However, I expect Japan to remain one of the top ten economies throughout the twenty-first century, in total GNP or per-capita, if one counts the EU as one economy.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 4, 2003 4:26 AMMichael:
I'm sure those 80 million Japanese senior citizens will be happy to assemble cars for less than Indonesian youths do.
Posted by: oj at November 4, 2003 7:43 AMFunny.
Also, one of the possibilities. Or, rather, them going back to work. The difference between their wages, and the wages of Indonesian youth, will be a gov't subsidy.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 6, 2003 3:59 PM