November 5, 2003
LOOK AWAY:
GOP clout rises in South: Gains of two governorships in region adds to a Republican realignment. (Liz Marlantes and Linda Feldmann, 11/06/03, The Christian Science Monitor)
Taken together, these events reflect the South's ongoing shift from a solidly Democratic region to one that is not only competitive for Republicans, but seems increasingly hostile to Democrats, with a rift over cultural issues from guns to abortion to affirmative action. Republicans now hold 8 governorships out of the 11 former confederate states.Yet it's the national implications for Democrats that may be most daunting: In the 2000 election, Al Gore lost the White House in part because he failed to carry a single Southern state, including his native Tennessee. And while this year's nominee could win the presidency without the South, the fast-growing region's increasing number of electoral votes clearly poses a problem for Democrats.
"Democrats have lost white conservative voters across the region ... [and] they're now beginning to lose white moderate voters across the region," says Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.
In many ways, Democrats find themselves increasingly torn between liberal Northeastern and West Coast voters who tend to dominate the party, and Southerners they hope to woo back. Dean has come under fire from Sen. John Kerry for high ratings from the National Rifle Association in his years as governor of Vermont - a position that might boost Dean's profile in the South, but could hurt him elsewhere and in many early primary states.
Estimates are that just the Texas realignment could give the GOP 5 to 8 additional House seats. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 5, 2003 6:54 PM
Although the thrust of the article may be true enough, it should be noted that the GOP candidates won in KY and MS largely due to scandals associated with the incumbent, Democratic Governors, and Gore lost only because of Clinton's moral problems.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 6, 2003 8:11 AMThere weren't any major (or even minor) scandals in MS. Barbour won because the GOP has developed an industrial-strength lock on the white vote in the state.
KY has been trending Repub for decades. It was just a matter of time before they took the governor's office. The sex scandal is a convenient excuse for the Dems, but the state is becoming a GOP stronghold.
Realignment stories are breaking out all over the media. The latest is a study from the Pew group (gawd, what a terrible name) that shows parity between the parties. Fred Barnes must be smiling. He started this whole realignment fad.
Of course, parity between the parties only prevails among the general population. Among people who actually bother to vote, the GOP has become the majority party. It will be interesting to see party identification numbers in the November, 2004 exit polls.
Posted by: Casey Abell at November 6, 2003 9:37 AMThe GOP must begin a strategy to carefully
and tactfully weed out the voter fraud shenanigans
that are sure to be perpetrated by the DEM's in
'04. Voter ID requirement laws would be appropriate in many locales.
For every Dem goon hanging around a polling place
there should be at least two Republican observers.
Ideally these observers should be casually dressed
and fresh faced college students.
Casey:
In MS, the incumbent, Democratic Governor was appointed by the State Legislature, and went through a messy divorce, while in office.
oj:
You would argue that Clinton's shenanigans HELPED Gore ?
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 6, 2003 1:27 PMI'm speechless.
You'd have to elaborate, before I'd accept that statement as other than a joke.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at November 7, 2003 7:07 AM