IT'S ALL ABOUT W:

Kentucky as bellwether for Bush's job policies: Tuesday's vote could elect a Republican for first time in 32 years. (Patrik Jonsson, 11/03/03, The Christian Science Monitor)

So far, Fletcher is doing well: He's up by nine points with a widening lead, and many analysts expect him to take back the governorship after 32 years of Democratic control.

The Mississippi race is closer, deadlocked between Republican Haley Barbour and Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D). Republicans may be poised for another victory in Louisiana, where Lieut. Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) lags behind Republican Bobby Jindal in a race set for Nov. 15. [...]

Gauging just how the dynamic of the national economy will play out here is a difficult task. On the one hand, Chandler has clearly tapped into Democratic discontent with Bush, and how he does at the polls will depend in part on whether party stalwarts turn out to vote Tuesday.

Yet Bush is still more popular in Kentucky than in most of the nation. He won by 16 percentage points here in 2000, and his Saturday swing through Kentucky and Mississippi could sway both teetering Democrats and undecided voters. Further confusing Chandler's message is last week's report of a 7.2 percent GDP growth - the best since 1984. Indeed, in the past few weeks, Chandler has talked less about the frailty of the economy, more about "putting Kentucky first."

Mr. Chandler, writ small, faces the Democrats larger problem: if you make George Bush's governance the issue but the economy comes back (and Iraq quiets down), you've effectively played to your enemy's strength.

MORE:
Campaign '03 Final Day (Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Steve Chaggaris, Beth Lester, Sean Sharifi and Clothilde Ewing, 11/03/03, CBS News)

Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is trying to hold off former RNC chairman Haley Barbour in the big-money, high-profile fight for Mississippi’s governor's mansion. Polls have shown the two candidates neck and neck, leading to speculation that neither may get 50 percent of the vote, since there are also three minor-party candidates on the ballot. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, the election would be decided by state House of Representatives, according to state law.

In that scenario, Musgrove could have the same advantage he did in 1999, when neither he nor former Rep. Mike Parker received a majority and the Democratic-majority legislature handed Musgrove the victory.

Currently, Democrats hold an 81-38 edge in the state House. But the legislature, which is elected Tuesday, will be the one deciding the new governor. So, in addition to watching whether or not Barbour or Musgrove gets 50 percent, it’ll bear watching who gets elected to the state House on Tuesday, as well.

In Kentucky, the election looks a bit more clear cut as Republican Rep. Ernie Fletcher has consistently led Attorney General Ben Chandler in the polls. Chandler has found himself in a situation where his campaign is suffering because of the scandals of the current Democratic governor, Paul Patton.

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 2, 2003 11:14 PM