November 27, 2003
IS HE STILL AROUND?:
For the moment, the dean of his class: Dean becomes a heavyweight while maintaining the look of a political outcast. (Liz Marlantes, 11/28/03, CS Monitor)
A former dark horse who's catapulted to the front of the Democratic pack, Howard Dean is a rare hybrid candidate - an increasingly established heavyweight who maintains the look of a political outcast. As his profile rises, the former Vermont governor's network of support is rapidly expanding to traditional constituencies, with congressional and union endorsements drawing blue-collar workers and minorities. But at its core, the Dean phenomenon still seems shaped by a legion of fervent young people like these, drawn to his antiestablishment rhetoric and bold political stances.The campaign's energy is fueled by a devoted base that's helped Dean weather gaffes and attacks. He's parlayed that support into stunning financial success, raising enough cash to opt out of the public financing system, with one-quarter of his money coming from people under 30.
Yet this youthful base, combined with Dean's opposition to the Iraq war, has evoked unflattering comparisons to George McGovern, and causes some to question the ultimate breadth of Dean's appeal. While students cram into auditoriums to hear him, it's unclear how much of that enthusiasm will translate into votes. In Iowa - where polls show him in a dead heat with Rep. Richard Gephardt - the caucuses tend to weed out all but the most committed voters, making them a key early test of Dean's strength.
The problem for Mr. Dean is that he can hardly portray himself as a fresh new outsider next Fall, when he'll have been his party's frontrunner or nominee for almost two years. He'll have grown terribly stale by then. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 27, 2003 9:17 AM
McGovern had the advantage that the "old guard" -- Richard Daley in Illinois and some of the southern delegations at the 1972 DNC convention -- waged a battle for control of the party apparatus right up until the votes on delgate seating in Miami. That allowed the McGovern wing to maitain their fervor of being outsiders battling the establishment right into the convention hall, though his choice of Eagleton a day later began the process of crashing it all down.
Unless the Clintons and other DLC people are willing to stage the same sort of battle in Boston, Dean's high point of insurgency will come sometime in March instead of in July or August (and having been on the McGovern side back in 1972, Bill and Hillary are not going to make the same mistake as Daley and others did 32 years ago). I suppose Howard could let McAuliffe twist slowly in the wind for four months before dumping him at the convention as a PR stunt to show a "new regime" is taking over, but to do that so long after securing the nomination is more likely to create anamosity among his party foes than elation among his supporters
I don't think the insider/outsider problem is major compared to his other problems:
1) He's the anti-Iraq war candidate, but Iraq will be better a year from now.
2) He's attacking Bush on the economy, but that'll be better a year from now as well.
3) He seems to have an unpleasant personality, which will look bad compared to Bush's friendly nature.
4) Purging the party of Clintonites will anger a large part of the party, never good for heading into an election.
Posted by: PapayaSF at November 27, 2003 1:48 PM