November 1, 2003

FROM VOLE TO VOLE IN JUST 1 MILLION YEARS:

Pack Rat Middens Give Unique View On Evolution And Climate Change In Past Million Years (Science Daily, 2003-10-31)

"This is the first study where we've actually taken a living species and looked back almost a million years at the population level to see how it changes through time," said Barnosky, an associate professor of integrative biology and associate curator at UC Berkeley's Museum of Paleontology.

"We've got a snapshot very early in the history of the species, around 750,000 years ago in the middle Pleistocene, in which we can trace details of what happens in time, plus a snapshot at 10,000 years and a modern snapshot." Together, these snapshots show very gradual change in the sagebrush vole, Lemmiscus curtatus, as the climate goes through one of many periodic cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the original vole population coexisting and probably interbreeding with its evolving cousins. [...]

"There is debate about the role of climate change and the glacial/interglacial transitions in driving speciation, that is, the evolution of a new species," Barnosky said. "Our study suggests that species adapt to handle routine climate change, and only something out of the ordinary initiates significant evolutionary change. It takes a long time for a species to change, and even the major climatic change 800,000 years ago wasn't dramatic enough to cause the origin of a new species.

"At least for small mammals, there may not have been much speciation in response to climate change in the Pleistocene."

Though the million-year-old voles and today's sagebrush voles are distinctly different based on the shape of their teeth, they probably would be considered the same species, Barnosky and Bell concluded. They acknowledge, however, that other biologists might view the two voles coexisting some 800,000 years ago as two separate species, one of which went extinct.

"The species concept is an especially challenging problem for paleontologists, who work with only bones and teeth," Bell said. "Here we are working with fossilized remains of a species that in the modern biota only has one species, and have shown that, through time, the morphological patterns within that species have changed.

"But we think we're looking at change within a species, not necessarily a speciation event."


Shocking, eh?

Posted by Orrin Judd at November 1, 2003 9:28 AM
Comments

If it ain't broke, why fix it?

Posted by: mike earl at November 1, 2003 9:40 AM

Of course, that's the necessary anmswer in a closed theory.

Posted by: oj at November 1, 2003 9:42 AM

The real difficulty highlighted by this article is the problem with the definiton of 'species'. Paleontology must necessarily use a morphological definition, while neo-darwinism has 'evolved' to a definition involving inter-breeding geographically limited populations.

"This study shows that, while we can draw a firm boundary around a species we see today in the landscape, we can't draw a firm boundary around species through time - the definition gets fuzzy," Barnosky added.

It gets 'fuzzy' because of the shift from one definition to another. Furthermore, the morphological definition has great difficulty distinguishing between mere varieties and species. (Imagine a paleontologist comparing the skeletons of a toy poodle and a St. Bernard) In the extreme, this would mean that the entire fossil record is irrelevant to modern evolutionary theory because of incompatible evidentiary and theoretical definitions. However, the best quote was:

"It's likely that speciation takes place over a longer time interval than extinction," Barnosky said.

This, of course, is absurd. If extinction occurs before speciation, there would not be any species.

Posted by: jd watson at November 1, 2003 1:05 PM

Geospecies and chronospecies, which are not the same thing, have been conflated. The author is an incompetent. You need to raise your standards, Orrin.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 1, 2003 3:59 PM

What Harry said.

It is almost certain that a modern vole could not breed with one of 800,000 years ago. And it is just as certain there is an unbroken line of descent between the two.

It's called virtual speciation.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 1, 2003 4:24 PM

A vole is a vole is a vole. Owls too apparently.

Posted by: OJ at November 1, 2003 5:24 PM

jd:

The absurdity is the point.

Posted by: OJ at November 1, 2003 5:38 PM

Why is it almost certain the modern vole couldn't breed with the ancestor? And why is the descent certain?

And while we are at it, what the heck is a vole? Don't you evolutionists ever cringe at the fact that the speciation "proofs" are are so obscure? Saturday Night Live would have a field day here.

Posted by: Peter B at November 1, 2003 7:51 PM

Peter -- I assume because one of them's dead.

Posted by: David Cohen at November 1, 2003 11:10 PM

Peter:

My argument is statistical (and why I said virtually certain--absent intact DNA from then, it is impossible to know). DNA accumulates changes randomly. If breeding populations are isolated for long enough, then there will be enough disparate changes to make the populations unable to breed, despite the overall appearance being essentially the same.

One can isolate populations in several ways (plate tectonics did, and the fossil record shows the results very clearly). One of those ways is through time.

I have read that there had been enough accumulated difference between Australian Aboriginal DNA and the rest of humanity that should the geographic isolation lasted roughly another 50,000 years, they would have constituted a separate species.

The language analog is this: There is an unbroken line of descent from Shakespearean times to today. Yet should you decide tomorrow to use the English of that time, today's speaker would find you virtually unintelligible--the analog for speciation.

Hence virtual extinction, despite an unbroken line of descent.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 2, 2003 7:59 AM

Jeff:

Each and every change in the English language since Shakespeare had a purpose, usually a bad one.

Posted by: Peter B at November 2, 2003 9:09 AM

Jeff:

Funny how you always resort to analogies that require intelligent guidance.

Posted by: oj at November 2, 2003 9:18 AM

Mr. Judd;

What intelligent guidance was there in language shifts? Could you point out who exactly guided those linguistic shifts?

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at November 2, 2003 2:56 PM

People decided it was easier to say "isn't" than "is not".

Posted by: OJ at November 2, 2003 3:21 PM

That does not explain the Great Vowel Shift, though, Orrin. It is not easier or harder to pronounce the Hahvadh "a" than the flat "a."

Ratty in "The Wind in the Willows" was a vole. Nothing obscure about it, Peter. One of the three or four most common mammals in the British Isles, although, sadly, in decline due to introduced competitors and predators.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 2, 2003 7:50 PM

No man of wealth and breeding wishes to speak like the rabble.

Posted by: OJ at November 2, 2003 7:59 PM

AOG

You are making the mistake of equating intelligent guidance with intelligence in its everyday sense.

Language shifts may have been to clarify, tease rebel, decorate, confuse, inspire, modernize, regularize, simplify, complicate, pontificate or whatever, but they all had a purpose. Not like those peasky voles!

Posted by: Peter B at November 2, 2003 8:24 PM

Peter:

One of the claims evolutionary theory makes is that certain types of complex systems change over time without any plan or external guidance.

Unless you can identify the Plan English was working to, or the external planner, then it gets rather hard to ignore that assertion.

Take something simple--since geographic separation, American English has had considerable accent drift from English English--and, if allowed to continue long enough, would have resulted in mutual unintelligibility.

What, pray tell, was the purpose behind that?

OJ:

Actually, I choose analogies with observable cycle times. Intelligence acts as the means of inheritance and source of variation, and is analagous to DNA in that respect.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 2, 2003 8:33 PM

Jeff:

I agree. DNA is merely the language used by an intelligent being or beings to transmit information. Welcome to Creationism.

Posted by: OJ at November 2, 2003 10:16 PM

OJ:

And your evidence that some intelligent being created DNA would be?

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 3, 2003 7:35 AM

The same as for the Rosetta Stone.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2003 8:09 AM

That old clockmaker argument doesn't hold water.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 3, 2003 12:34 PM

Yet there's a clock.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2003 12:42 PM

Which, absent any other evidence, is all you can say about the clock--that it exists, but not how it came to get there.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 3, 2003 1:37 PM

Bingo! I see the clock and assume an intelligent being must have made it--you see it and assume it arose from nature. Both of us merely make assumptions.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2003 1:46 PM

If you're going to make analogies, make sure you understand them.

Voicegrams now prove that children always pronounce words slightly differently from their parents, and this is universal.

Over enough generations, you get big shifts. They are not, however, directional.

So the remark about the upper classes won't work to explain the Great Vowel Shift. It remains unexplained.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at November 3, 2003 6:44 PM

That explains it quite nicely. The upper class thinks itself the parent.

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2003 6:55 PM

Oh, this is getting wild. You guys admit to huge evidentiary gaps in evolution and cling desperately to peahens and voles, but then suddenly you rise and proclaim with confidence that the development of language comes, not from the progression of poets and writers we all learned about in English 101, but from something called the Great Vowel Shift. In capitals no less.

You really should get out more.

Posted by: Peter B at November 3, 2003 8:24 PM

OJ:

Wrong. You make a conclusion from ignorance.

I admit my ignorance and conclude, not that it arose from nature, but rather "I don't know."

There's a difference.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 3, 2003 10:04 PM

So you don't believe in Darwinism?

Posted by: oj at November 3, 2003 10:09 PM

I believe in evolution (why do you persist in using the term Darwinism?), because of the supporting evidence and the lack of contradictory evidence.

I am agnostic about how life got started, because of the complete lack of evidence to support or contradict any theory.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 4, 2003 9:54 AM

Jeff:

I support Creation for the same reason and Creation via Evolution. Thus the use of Darwinism to differentiate your belief that Evolution is entirely a coincidental process of nature.

Posted by: oj at November 4, 2003 12:19 PM

Thus the misuse of the term. You have mis-appropriated the term "Evolution," then misapplied the term "Darwinism" no matter what your correspondent intends.

I'll remember that next time you take Maureen Dowd to task.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at November 4, 2003 8:18 PM

ev·o·lu·tion ( P ) Pronunciation Key (v-lshn, v-)
n.
A gradual process in which something changes into a different and usually more complex or better form. See Synonyms at development.

The process of developing.
Gradual development.
Biology.

Change in the genetic composition of a population during successive generations, as a result of natural selection acting on the genetic variation among individuals, and resulting in the development of new species.

The historical development of a related group of organisms; phylogeny.

A movement that is part of a set of ordered movements.

Posted by: oj at November 4, 2003 9:03 PM
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