It's early days yet, and this is only one state, but the Democrat's may be losing their solid 40%.

I think there are four scenarios for '04, each with different probabilities:

(A) "oj-blow out" where GWB wins by better than 10% and GOP picks up (close to) nine Senate seats: chance 5% which is smaller than (D), below, and very unlikely mostly on account of the congressinal pick-ups

(B) "Rove-expectation" (my assumption) where GWB wins by between 5% to

(C) "Dems don't blow it scenario" GWB wins by less than 5% and GOP picks up one seat in the Senate(more or less) in the Senate: chance 30%

(D) (C) plus Iraq and economy affording DNC free media propaganda: GWB loses by less than 2.5% (EC, by mirror image of last election) and Dems hold serve in Congress: chance 15%

I think today we would be between (B) and (C). Anything closer to (C) would be a major bullet dodged by the Dems. In fact, unless you are guaranteed a (B) with a 50%-50% chance of (A) Reps would not be able to advance the agenda beyond where it is in 2003.

David - true its early but the pundits have pointed to Florida as a 50-50 state and therefore representative of the political climate. Bush winning easily in Florida would be a good harbinger for his reelection chances. And what would Bush's numbers do if a) Martinez is the GOP senate candidate and b) seniors like the medicare bill pushed by the GOP and Bush?

AWW --

If Bush wins easily in Fl, it's a romp.

The press is wedded to 50/50, but for their own reasons. It never was true. What we have had is 40/40/20 nation. If we're moving to 45/35/20 nation or even 40/35/25 nation, the Dem's don't have to worry about simple defeat, they have to worry about a couple of decades of constant defeat, while they retreat into their coastal fortresses.

MG - I assume the probability on B is 50% since the probabilities on the other 3 add up to 50%
I agree that it is around B/C right now but given the improving economy and (potential) improvement in Iraq I believe it will move more toward solid B or B/A rather than toward C or D. It would take significant negative development on the economy, Iraq, or WOT to push it toward D.

The big intangible is how the Democrats sound and act starting in February. If the shrillness and the hectoring continues, their numbers will drop. If Howard Dean actually 'matures' beyond how the NYT defines that term, he could climb to maybe 46%-47%, but I doubt if he goes any higher. A calm and steady Bush beats a loud and incoherent Democrat 54.5%-43.5%-2% (counting Nader and the other fringe candidates).

The real test will be in the Senate, where the GOP needs to win at least 4 more seats to really flex some muscle. They should pick up about 7 more House seats, maybe up to 9 or 10. But some of the natives are restless with the unrestrained spending. That will be a problem for Bush in his second term - and it could be a big one, if the economy doesn't grow like people now are thinking it will. The past couple of weeks I have thought of pulling out my copy of "Parliament of Whores" just for a refresher.

Assuming he really believes it and isn't just bad-mouthing his own candidate (which is what happened early in the 1998 re-election campaign), Rove's opnion that the race will be close should help keep Bush and the RNC from trying to coast through the 2004 election and basically just playing defense without explaining what the president wants to do if elected to a second term. As good as Reagan's "Morning In America" ad campaign was in 1984, it was basically a defensive effort, toutring the first four years of his administration without really elaborating on what he wanted to do with years 5-8. So he defeated Mondale easily, but never gave voters a reason to dump congressional Democrats at the same time.

As for Dean, his sucess at showing a "kinder gentler" image after the major primary dates in Feburary will probably depend on how much his hard core supporter who really love this stuff will put up with a muted Howie. If they're willing to keep quiet about their fears Dean is going wobbly on them, the strategy has a chance; if they don't, he'll have to spend much of the time before the convention shoring up his base while trying to show he's responsible on foreign policy at the same time to the rest of the voters. That's going to be tough barring some major economic disaster or terrorist attack on U.S. soil.