November 10, 2003
CAN THE GOP SWEEP?:
Poll: Jindal edges Blanco: Racial, regional differences emerge. (John Hill, November 8, 2003, The Lafayette Daily Advertiser)
Republican Bobby Jindal, leading Democrat Kathleen Blanco by five points, was nearing the 50 percent majority with likely voters, according to a Daily Advertiser/Louisiana Gannett poll taken this week.
Forty-eight percent favored Jindal, and 43 percent Blanco. [...]Both Jindal and Blanco are household names: 98 percent of those polled recognized their names, and only one out of four had neutral opinions about them. Jindal had an edge in favorable/unfavorable ratios. [...]
University of Louisiana at Monroe political scientist Pearson Cross said Blanco needs a greater percentage of white votes.
"Right now, Kathleen Blanco is not at the magic number that will get a Democrat elected," Cross said. "She is at 29 percent, but needs to be at 32 to 34 of the white vote, and a very strong black turnout that votes for her."
"Louisiana is getting more and more like the rest of the country," Cross said. ìI cannot detect in these poll numbers any effect of Jindal's ethnicity, but you can see there may be some anti-woman backlash among black males. Black males are significantly stronger in their support for Jindal than black females."
"Black males are starting to vote like white males," he said.
If that last line ever became true, Bill Clinton might be our last Democratic president. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 10, 2003 3:54 PM
Isn't anybody here starting to get worried about a "dirty tricks late hit"? Normally the Dem machine waits until Friday to erupt, but that's the timetable for a Tuesday election. I reckon, Bobby's day could come tomorrow or the day after. What do you locals think?
Posted by: MG at November 10, 2003 6:24 PMI was looking at a November 2002 archive of another blog (no left turns) and it stated that Suzy Terrel had an 8 point lead on Mary Landrieu on November 21, 2002. We all know what happened there.
I am confident that Jindal will win but we can't get too cocky.
Posted by: pchuck at November 10, 2003 6:56 PMI was looking at a November 2002 archive of another blog (no left turns) and it stated that Suzy Terrel had an 8 point lead on Mary Landrieu on November 21, 2002. We all know what happened there.
I am confident that Jindal will win but we can't get too cocky.
Posted by: pchuck at November 10, 2003 6:57 PMTerrell never got to 50% not a steady lead:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/Senate_02_LA.html
Posted by: oj at November 10, 2003 7:22 PMThat's because Landrieu's campaign knew she was in trouble by 11 AM, had a conference call w/Bubba and LA's Jesse J. and got out the vote. The tide turned around 4:30 PM.
Posted by: Sandy P. at November 10, 2003 11:42 PMI have the same concern as MG -- a late hit or some peculiar "get out the vote" activity. Jindal's 5% lead (last I saw) isn't enough to for a Republican in Louisiana. Lots of things can and do happen.
Posted by: Dave in LA at November 11, 2003 2:48 AMI think the Pakistani/Muslim endorsement of Blanco may seal the deal FOR Jindal. Let's hope so.
Posted by: Melissa at November 11, 2003 10:09 AMI am second to none in hoping Jindal gets to manage that dessicated backwater, and I really like the guy, but let's be on the record about this: Ain't gonna happen.
Posted by: Chris at November 11, 2003 11:20 AM