November 3, 2003
AS MS GOES, SO GOES THE NATION?:
The importance of beating Haley (Robert Novak, October 30, 2003, Townhall.com)
The importance of beating Barbour goes beyond Democrats retaining one of their few Southern footholds. Mississippi is a laboratory for use of personal attacks that are at the heart of McAuliffe's model for beating Bush. But Musgrove, an accomplished hit man, went a step too far in accusing Barbour as a Washington lobbyist of helping "tobacco companies poison our kids." Since that allegation, Barbour has broken out of a virtual dead heat to a five-point lead in the polls.Mississippi is the most Republican of the Deep South states, won by Bush in 2000 by 17 points and represented in the U.S. Senate by two Republicans. Musgrove occupies the governor's office because of a lackluster campaign by his Republican opponent, then Rep. Mike Parker. Yet, if African-Americans (one-third of the state's population) vote in unusually high numbers, Musgrove can win. Democrats hope a black candidate for lieutenant governor, State Sen. Barbara Blackmon, brings them out Election Day.
Bush's Mississippi landslide included little more than 3 percent of the black vote, and polls now give Barbour 11 percent. However, Barbour does not match Bush in total domination of white voters. A recent survey shows Barbour ahead of Musgrove, 70 percent to 22 percent. But if the Democrats get up to 25 percent of whites, the Republican is in trouble.
Even when you take into consideration the sorry state of the Democratic Party, wouldn't it seem rather desperate to try and portray a conservative incumbent narrowly defeating a rather inexperienced opponent as a template for a Democratic presidential campaign? Posted by Orrin Judd at November 3, 2003 12:00 AM
When you have forsaken history, embraced insanity, dropped all attempts at serious leadership, and gone apoplectic, then tomorrow's race in Mississippi can be turned into a paradigm. The only real lesson of these governor's races is that the party's Clinton decline will accelerate into next year. When will someone kick McAuliffe out?
Posted by: jim hamlen at November 3, 2003 7:20 AMOf course, the DNC and their propaganda organs always position all these local races as "referendum" on GWB or the GOP. If and when they lose, the whole thing will have always been about "throw the bums out - incumbents and incumbent party" (what they would say in KY and MS), or about "disenfranchisement" (what they say when Black turnout is not more than 125% of registered voters (what they would say in LA).
Posted by: MG at November 3, 2003 8:28 AM