COWBOY UP:

Front-runner? Take your pick (Jayson Stark, 9/10/03, ESPN.com)

Who's the favorite?

It's mid-September, and we're supposed to know the answer to this by now.

Who's the favorite to win the World Series?

"It's not the Yankees," says one GM.

"Atlanta has had the best year," says another. "But to me, they're ripe to flop in the playoffs."

OK, great. Now that we've talked ourselves out of the two teams with the best records in their leagues, we can just throw a dart, haul out a Ouija Board or leave all our predictions to Bailey the Sports Dog.

Because Bailey the Sports Dog's guess on who's going to win the World Series is as good as yours, or ours, or even George Steinbrenner's.[...]

THE PICK: Well, we tried doing this mathematically. We ranked the contenders in nine categories -- winning percentage, runs scored/allowed, record vs. contenders, second-half record, runs scored, team ERA, starters' ERA, bullpen ERA and OPS. Using that system, we got Giants vs. Yankees, with the Giants winning it all.

But that seemed way too easy. So we're not going to pick by the numbers. We're going to pick the best story: Cubs vs. Red Sox. Why the Cubs? Because Prior and Zambrano are a combined 14-1, 1.40 since the break, and if Kerry Wood is your third-best starter, nobody can top that. Why the Red Sox? Because this is baseball's best lineup since the '95 Indians -- and they can run Pedro out there twice in a short series.

Now if those two teams really played in a World Series, it would be reasonable to wonder if anybody would win. But our first prediction is: Somebody would. Our second prediction is: That team would be the Red Sox, because they're better-balanced. And our third prediction is: The party in New England wouldn't end till Opening Day.

Red Sox' Alignment of Stars (Thomas Boswell, September 11, 2003, washington Post)

This is the Red Sox' year.

This statement, of course, is a standing joke in New England. Every year is the Red Sox' year. Until it turns out not to be. This refrain of broken hopes has held true since 1918. Some think it will hold true forever.

But I don't. I actually think this is the year the Red Sox will win the World Series. My editors, told of this, have already suggested a suitable "employee drug rehabilitation program." But I have my sober reasons.

Foremost among them: I vacationed in the heart of Red Sox Nation where everyone knows every pitch of the previous game. [...]

I did not meet one person who "believed." Some thought the Red Sox could win, but won't, because they are the Red Sox. Some thought the Sox might, in theory, win it all if a) the bullpen were better, b) the manager were fully conscious or c) Manny wasn't a head case. But, things being what they are -- not quite perfect -- this isn't the year.

"Great," said Red Sox GM Theo Epstein Wednesday. "Maybe we should trademark that phrase: 'This is not the year.' "

"This is not the year. I love it," said Red Sox President Larry Lucchino. "If we are ever going to get there, we have to sneak up on 'em."

This year, the Red Sox have taken to wearing T-shirts that say, "Cowboy Up" -- a phrase that implies everybody is going to tough it out, pull together, ignore the skeptics and the hexes. Several Red Sox used the phrase. Then, reliever Mike Timlin was watching "Tears of the Sun" and heard Bruce Willis say, "It's time to Cowboy Up."

"I said, 'Man, that's what we've all been saying all season. It's time for the Red Sox to 'cowboy up,' " Timlin said, laughing. So, Timlin had "Cowboy Up" T-shirts made for the whole team. "We're putting it on our program for the rest of the season," Lucchino said.

"Maybe we should put, 'Cowboy Up' on the front," said Timlin, "and 'This is not the year,' on the back."

Here's what it means to be a Sox fan: the three players that Sox Nation is most down on are Nomar Garciaparra (who has struck out for the 3rd out with the bases loaded against Jorge Julio and Mariano Rivera in recent games); Pedro Martinez (who gets treated, justifiably or not, with kid gloves); and Manny Ramirez (who missed the last Yankee series with an illness that didn't keep him out of the bar at the Ritz but did keep him from pinch hitting the three times he was asked to, following which he gave an interview saying how he wanted to be a Yankee). Only in Boston are your three best players considered to be the main problem with the team

Tears of the Sun, by the way, though fairly mediocre, improbably enough features an epigraph from Edmund Burke: "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing" It is also unabashedly patriotic, suggesting that Americans offer Africa just about its only hope.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 12, 2003 10:42 AM