THE GOOD NEWS IS THE BAD NEWS IS WRONG:

There is no reason to panic - the war is going well (Max Boot, April 1 2003, Financial Times)

The fedayeen can harass lines of communication, forcing the coalition to deploy more troops to guard supply convoys, but this is merely a nuisance. The "dead-enders" are dying. They cannot keep up these ineffectual attacks indefinitely. Annoying as this resistance may be, other dangers have not materialised. No massive destruction of Iraqi oilfields, dams or bridges. No attacks on the US or Israel. No chemical or biological weapons used. Some of these scenarios may still occur; but others have been foreclosed by military action. The US advance of 250 miles in four days is impressive and it is not over yet. Much of western Iraq has fallen. Kurds led by US special forces are on the march in the north. Air strikes are taking a growing toll on the Republican Guard dug in around Baghdad.

The media present a distorted picture because "embedded" reporters cover every scratch suffered by US and UK soldiers. But there are no reporters embedded in Iraqi forces to chronicle their devastating losses from precision air and artillery strikes.

Any loss of life is a tragedy but by historical standards the US has not suffered unduly. Fewer than 50 US personnel have been killed - a fraction of the 382 killed in the 1991 Gulf war (147 from hostile fire). Two of the most successful armoured attacks in history were the German blitzkrieg through the Low Countries and France in 1940 and the Israeli offensive against its Arab neighbours in 1967. The Germans lost more than 27,000 men, the Israelis more than 700. It will take many Nasiriya-style ambushes before US forces approach those figures.

And after a mere 14 days, the offensive is hardly bogged down. The German blitzkrieg in 1940 took 44 days before France surrendered. Nor have recent US campaigns been overnight affairs. The first Gulf war lasted 43 days, Kosovo 79 days, Afghanistan 63 days. There is no reason, other than sheer hubris, to expect this campaign to go any faster.

The endgame - the liberation of Baghdad - will not be easy or bloodless but it is doable. Mr Hussein may think he can repeat "Black Hawk Down" on a larger scale but he is almost certainly mistaken. US forces had no trouble securing Mogadishu in 1992. The problems occurred in 1993 after the bulk of US troops had gone home and a small contingent of commandos was sent to chase a warlord. US forces achieved their objective but at a cost of 18 lives, because they lacked armour and air support. In the battle of Baghdad there will be no such lack.

The coalition will be successful in Iraq. With each day that goes by, Mr Hussein's forces grow weaker and ours grow stronger. That the enemy is fighting hard now does not mean he will not soon be defeated. The French fought hard in May 1940 - at first. But eventually the speed and ferocity of the German advance led to a total collapse. The same thing will happen in Iraq.

The last point seems particularly relevant at the moment--nations at war, when they fall, tend to fall with stunning speed, as did France in 1940. Though Chicken Littles are forecasting a long, drawn out campaign to take every building in Baghdad, the more likely scenario is that when the defense begins to crumble it will rapidly fall apart altogether. It remains, as it has from the beginning, more likely a matter of days than weeks before this war is effectively over.

MORE:
Baghdad Division of Republican Guard destroyed, U.S. says (AP, April 02, 2003)

American forces, which crossed the Tigris River in the drive toward the Iraqi capital, destroyed the Baghdad Division of Iraq's Republican Guard, the U.S. Central Command said Wednesday.

The U.S. forces seized the strategic town of Kut and routed the Republican Guard division force that had been guarding the highway leading to Baghdad.

"The Baghdad Division has been destroyed,'' said Brig.-Gen. Vincent Brooks.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 2, 2003 10:27 AM