FIRST TO FOLD?:

Iowa Challenges Hawkish Lieberman (DAVID LIGHTMAN, April 14 2003, Hartford Courant)

The Iraq war should be a political triumph for Joe Lieberman. But he spent the days after the fall of Baghdad in Iowa, the so-called peace state, and too often found that his stance for war magnified his other political troubles here.

Iowa will be the first caucus state in 2004, and whoever wins, or at least beats expectations, will likely be dubbed a front-runner. Lieberman's expectations are lower than Iowa cornstalks in January, yet he keeps trying to win supporters. [...]

Lieberman is still a blur of sorts in Iowa, someone whom people just can't put into focus. He's a friendly, decent man who promotes himself as a centrist in a state where Democrats are generally liberals, but his voting record leans left on most key issues.

His campaign has stymied by quirky logistical tangles - his first scheduled 2003 trip was to have begun on the day the space shuttle Columbia exploded. It was canceled.

The rescheduled visit went on two weeks later, but without his staff, stuck in Washington in a snowstorm. Last week's trip was cut short because the senator had to rush back to Washington for a rare Friday afternoon vote, so a crowd that had gathered in Ames heard son Matt Lieberman address them by speakerphone instead.

He addressed the strange degree of difficulty his father faces from his political history and personality. He's well-known, since he ran in 2000 for vice president, and generally well-liked. But many question whether he's too much a symbol of the past and too gentle to take on President Bush.

"Some people give off lightning," Matt Lieberman said. "Some give off a warm, steady glow. Right now, especially now, America needs the steadiness of his leadership." [...]

"I'm going to come up the center," he told a Fort Dodge crowd, "and unite all parts of the party behind me." And by positioning himself in the middle, he explained, he can paint Bush as a right-wing extremist out to only help his friends and the wealthy.

Good stuff, some said. "It's a very strong message. He's very presidential," said Seth Grote, a McClelland farmer.

But Lieberman's centrist style and talk, while useful in a general election, may make it more difficult for him to get that far, especially in places like Iowa.

Lieberman's forces believe that in a multi-candidate field, as little as 20 percent of the vote in Iowa would be seen as a good showing and maybe even a win.

But even getting 20 percent is hardly a safe bet, and Lieberman has a tough choice to make in the months ahead - whether to contest this state hard, or do as Arizona Sen. John McCain did in 2000, spend his time and money where the results will be more to his favor.

"The dynamics of this race change day by day," Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer said. "At the beginning, there was a push back as people questioned the war; now it's turned around. Tomorrow, who knows?"

In the race for the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination, Al Sharpton is widely dismissed as the token black candidate, Carol Mosely Braun as the token black woman, Dennis Kucinich as the token progressive...so why is Joe Lieberman not treated as the token Jewish candidate? After all, it's not as if he has any chance to win. Iowa is a state that requires organization--he has none. It is pro-farm and anti-war. He supports the war and opposes ethanol subsidies. Then the contest moves to NH, where favorite son candidates routinely win (though, this being a Republican state, those sons typically hail from MA). True to form, John Kerry and Howard Dean are running very strong here. Then, in early February the Democrats move on to SC, with two Southerners in the race and two blacks, there's awful lot of that electorate already claimed, and what remains likely leans farther Left than the Senator from CT. So three primaries into the process Mr. Lieberman is going to have been shut out and probably badly so. Given the expectations for his candidacy and his certain failure to meet them, he may not even make it as far as SC. In fact, it seems fair to ask: why is he running, except to represent the tribe? Posted by Orrin Judd at April 15, 2003 2:25 PM