April 3, 2003
DEPILATE HIM:
Is Hussein Still Alive? Speculation Intensifies (DAVID E. SANGER and JAMES RISEN, 4/03/03, NY Times)The Bush administration has intensified a campaign--using radio broadcasts and other communications with Iraqi military leaders--to sow doubts about whether President Saddam Hussein is still alive and in control of the country, senior administration and military officials said.American officials say they have still reached no firm conclusions about whether Mr. Hussein survived an attack two weeks ago. But they are trying to turn that uncertainty to battlefield advantage, attempting to raise questions in the minds of Iraqi military commanders about whether they should fight for a leader who may be dead or incapacitated.
"From what our intelligence is picking up, some of the Iraqi commanders themselves have not heard from him," said one senior official. "And we don't know ourselves. So you could call this psychological warfare, or you could call it exploitation of the biggest mystery out there."
The administration's effort to raise doubts about Mr. Hussein comes after American military officials have reported to the Pentagon that most Iraqis encountered by American forces believe that Mr. Hussein is still alive. [...]
"If we underestimated anything, it was Saddam's ability to project the perception that he is still in charge," one intelligence official said. "We haven't seen a massive uprising, and we think that is because most of the people are still convinced he is alive."
American intelligence officials said today that they have not yet heard Mr. Hussein or either of his two sons issuing orders since the initial raid on his bunker that started the war on the evening of March 19, Washington time. American intelligence is convinced that he was in the bunker at the time of the raid, but do not know whether he survived.
Intelligence officials say that the United States has not been able to identify any members of Mr. Hussein's inner circle who are trying to coordinate Iraqi forces in the field, or who is in overall command.
The questions about Mr. Hussein resumed today when he did not appear on television, but the Iraqi government issued another statement in his name. None of the broadcasts of Mr. Hussein shown since the war started have yielded clear evidence of where and when the tapes were made.
American analysts remain convinced that several people were killed and wounded in the March 19 raid, but they have not assembled what they would consider an authoritative list of casualties.
During the 1991 wulf war, Mr. Hussein, who has long been preoccupied with personal security, dropped from sight.
We've thought since the first night that he and his sons were killed or as good as. And, even if he is an evil genius--the latter part of which we doubt--aren't we past the moment when suddenly revealing himself to be alive might have been politically useful? But, if we're trying to lure him into the open, why not announce that we're worried about him sneaking out of the country and release a computer-altered mugshot of him without his mustache? Posted by Orrin Judd at April 3, 2003 8:23 AM
Command and control seems to be dissipating if not totally absent. Walter Rodgers of CNN is reporting with 1st Cav and its apparent they are punching through to Baghdad and its 08:45.
I saw a crawl that abandoned boots are being seen where there used to be Republican Guards.
So how far off is CNN's QuickVote asking if the war will last less than or more than 3 months?
Mr. Judd--The suggestion about the mustache is almost diabolical! Also, Lilek's Backfence has a funny column about Saddam's head in a dish.
Posted by: Buttercup at April 3, 2003 9:03 AMWeird, huh? What happened to the SCUDs that were supposed to be lobbed into Israeli land? How come the retreating Iraqi troops aren't blowing up bridges behind them ?Hell, even I know enough to do that. It just doesn't seem plausible that there is a doomsday surprise waiting for us inside the city.
It also seems like an eternity ago that we were 'surprised' at the 'tenacious Iraqi resistance' and were 'tearing up warplans', etc. It is actually funny now, although damned irritating back then ('back then' was all of 5 days ago!).
Bruce:
Tori Clark began her DOD press briefing yesterday by saying it was Day 14 of the war and I did a double take. It would have been nice to end it in five days but c'mon...is a war that lasts less than three weeks really a quagmire for us these days? Weird is right.
Now don't get too cocky sir. Our troops are now in at least one of the Presidential palaces and those palace hallways are notoriously long and twisty. The troops will undoubtedly run into bad lighting and garish furnishings as well. We could still get bogged down . . .
Posted by: Bill at April 3, 2003 11:06 AMI'm with Bruce. This is almost too wierd. I hope someone is detaining and interrogating the busloads and roadloads of defectors heading south from Baghdad. If all is as it seems, then Rummy's/Franks' decision to pre-empt the kickoff was a touch of genius that should go down in military history. If not, we'll have some cleaning up to do.
Posted by: Genecis at April 3, 2003 12:40 PMThis is the biggest cakewalk since Omdurman. Norway inflicted 10 times as many casualties on the Germans as Iraq has on the coalition.
On Saddam, I figure the minimum is his face is so bruised and cut he can't go on TV. If he's alive.
My current thinking is that nobody in Iraq, saving a few, wants to fight, but nobody can figure out how to surrender. Thus the odd non-fighting retreat, not blowing bridges etc.
Going in, I said it would be over in 48 hours. When the final silence sets in, we'll see that the total of combat will have been even less. The rest of the time was just spent chasing.