April 4, 2003
C'MON SADDAM, DON'T MAKE US LOOK BAD!:
Saddam's Stalingrad strategy (Martin Sieff, 4/4/2003, United Press International)Where are all Iraq's soldiers hiding? John Keegan -- defense editor of the London Daily Telegraph and probably the most important, respected analyst and historian of war over the past generation -- asked this potent question Friday in his paper. The question is a troubling one. The possible answer, even more so.Keegan begins by questioning the fundamental assumption comfortably accepted by all U.S. official briefers on the current war in Iraq, as well by all U.S. media coverage of it. Far from Saddam Hussein's elite Republican Guard units being shattered by overwhelming firepower, Keegan questions whether they were ever even committed in the first place. And the evidence appears very much on his side.
"Fairly regularly," Keegan writes, "television or the press brings us news of Iraqi divisions 'severely mauled' or even 'destroyed.'" Yet, he continues, "Strangely enough, there are no photographs or eye-witness testimonies. Indeed, rather the contrary. James Meek, traveling with the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force up the Tigris reported (Thursday) that the enemy was a will 'o the wisp."
"The situation map of March 20 showed six Republican Guard divisions encircling Baghdad and 16 ordinary army divisions, of which six armored or mechanized, (were) distributed around the country," Keegan wrote. Yet up to now, more than two weeks later, "Of the ordinary divisions there have been no reported signs at all. The Americans do not appear to have seen them, nor have the British. It is as if they have disappeared into thin air."
"Have they gone home and hidden their uniforms?" Keegan understandably asked. "Have they drifted across the borders into Iran or Syria? Are they refugees in the northern no-fly zones?"
All good, truly prescient questions. And we will in fact attempt some cautious attempts at answers.
The answers, in fact to all three of Keegan's last questions appear to be "No."
Here's one of the truly strangest things about the war: the hawks are gratified and relieved that losses, both Allied and Iraqi, have been minimal; but the doves are devastated. That's what the "Pause Punditicide" was earlier this week, a massive wish transference of folks who'd opposed the war now desperately hoping it would turn into a bloody mess, just in order to justify their reluctance to fight in the first place. Thus we have the paradoxical spectacle of hawks hoping for a quick and bloodless campaign, while the doves pray for death and devastation. Weird, huh? Posted by Orrin Judd at April 4, 2003 7:01 PM
Yeah.
One question I still would like answered from Gulf I was the casualties on the Iraqi side.
A lot of the killing this time -- most of it, probably -- has been at long range. If the Iraqis are both good Iraqis and good Muslims, then they're taking their dead off the battlefield and burying them.
I wouldn't expect reporters to see that many corpses, based on my understanding of the actions so far.
Some other blog sites, responding to this article, have qoutes saying the battlefield is littered with Iraqis. Foxnews has apparently qouted someone saying 100K Iraqies have been killed. We'll find out whose right when the fog of war lifts.
Posted by: AWW at April 4, 2003 10:26 PMThe POW and KIA claims took a big jump
today, too.
An artificial scarcity, I suspect.
By the way, blogsofwar says Fox says an
armored column is racing toward the center
of Baghdad and was six miles out. If true,
that's an audacious stroke.
And will be causing the Chinese (see post
above) furiously to think, I'll bet.
It aint over till it's over. I'm hopeful; but this is indeed strange. If they're in Baghdad they'll have a huge problem with friendly fire between themselves. I still think we should consolidate and intensely probe until the 4th and 9th Cav. gets on the ground and rolling. Exchanges like today will thin them out as we consolidate. Then we can sectionalize the city and keep this shebang on our terms. How about a night drop of paratrooper dummies in the middle of their concentrations. Woah. You know dummies like the ones we used on D-day. I can see the tracers flying. That event could last all night.
Posted by: Genecis at April 5, 2003 3:19 PMI take Centcom's statement that the RG is
mostly dead as probably correct. A lot depends
on where they were sheltering. If it was in
bunkers, they won't be coming out, and
reporters won't be noticing their bodies.
If they weren't in bunkers, then they were on
the surface; dug in, of course, but it's hard to
escape cluster bomblets with foxholes.
I don't know anything specific, but I have an
idea that force disparity is way beyond anything
most people imagine.
I am reminded of what happened when the
US field artillery first used VT fuses against
the Nazis. The air bursts slaughtered whole
formations, and that as much as any single
factor broke the defenses of the Rhine.
In the 1970s, I explained this to my boos, who as
a private had manned one of those guns. I
showed him pictures of buildings that had been
sprayed by shrapnel from VT bursts.
"I never knew we did that," he told me.