March 17, 2003
WELL BEGUN IS HALF DONE:
Iraqi troops flee front line (TIM RIPLEY, 3/17/03, The Scotsman)UP TO 15 per cent of Iraqi conscripts holding Saddam Hussein’s northern front line have already deserted, according to US special forces in the region.Elite US troops based in the Kurdish enclave in northern Iraq are regularly probing Iraqi lines, to draw up target lists for airstrikes.
They are looking for pockets of ‘hard core’ pro-Saddam troops who can be attacked first to break the back of resistance.
It is hoped the attacks will turn the trickle of desertions into a torrent, allowing Kurdish resistance fighters to drive southward to seize the Kirkuk and Mosul oil fields.
Liaison teams have been building up links with Kurdish Peshmerga fighters from the KDP and PUK resistance groups. As in Afghanistan, these teams have been operating largely in plain clothes to avoid attracting the attention of western journalists based in the Kurdish safe haven.
Up to five thousand US, British and Australian special forces troops are now deployed around Iraq’s borders and are already playing a key role in General Tommy Franks’ war plan to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime.
But their main role will come in the first few hours of the attack. Oil facilities at the top of the Arabian Gulf are to be the target of lightning US and British special forces raids to thwart the Iraqis opening their taps and releasing millions of barrels of oil in a campaign of ‘environmental terrorism’.
It is at least possible that the war will be effectively won by the time it is declared. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 17, 2003 11:33 PM
I think people are being too blase about possible casualties.
Taking Baghdad may be a lot more bloody (especially for the civilian pop.) than anyone anticipates.
Who says we're going to go into Baghdad? According to the post-speech discussion on Fox, the current plan is to descend in lightning fashion on the rest of the country, then invest Baghdad and basically wait for Saddam to fall if he's not already dead/overthrown. There doesn't seem to be any particular intention to send masses of infantry into the metro area, though special forces may well be used.
Posted by: Joe at March 18, 2003 5:49 AMAli:
Holing up somewhere in Baghdad might be a bloody way for Saddam to go out, but it would also be an acknowledgement that the war was lost. All that really matters is removing his capacity to do more than defend his own person.
Basically, that means taking out the Special Republican Guard and the other troops dug in around Baghdad, who are, in large part, Saddam's own tribal bravoes from Tikrit. As their fortunes are bound to his, they're the one segment of the Iraqi army that can seriously be expected to fight.
Posted by: Joe at March 18, 2003 9:13 AM