THE TIMES MAKES THE CASE FOR APPEASEMENT:

Anger on Iraq Seen as New Qaeda Recruiting Tool (DON VAN NATTA Jr. and DESMOND BUTLER, March 16, 2003, NY Times)

On three continents, Al Qaeda and other terror organizations have intensified their efforts to recruit young Muslim men, tapping into rising anger about the American campaign for war in Iraq, according to intelligence and law enforcement officials.

In recent weeks, officials in the United States, Europe and Africa say they had seen evidence that militants within Muslim communities are seeking to identify and groom a new generation of terrorist operatives. An invasion of Iraq, the officials worry, is almost certain to produce a groundswell of recruitment for groups committed to attacks in the United States, Europe and Israel.

"An American invasion of Iraq is already being used as a recruitment tool by Al Qaeda and other groups," a senior American counterintelligence official said. "And it is a very effective tool."

Another American official, based in Europe, said Iraq had become "a battle cry, in a way," for Qaeda recruiters.

Some of the information about Qaeda recruiting comes from interrogations of captured operatives and from materials found at the house in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, where Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the third-ranking Qaeda leader, was arrested this month, officials say.

The surge in Qaeda recruitment efforts has been most visible in Germany, Britain, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands, the officials said. Investigators have significantly increased their use of informants and, in some cases, bugging devices, to monitor mosques and other gathering places, where they have observed a sharp spike in anti-American oratory. [...]

Despite an apparent increase in potential recruits, many analysts say that the American-led campaign in Afghanistan in the fall of 2001 had shut down Al Qaeda's primary training camps and dealt an enormous blow to the network's ability to recruit and train new members. But officials believe that terrorist groups have established new bases of operation, especially in the Caucasus. "I fear that Chechnya could become the new Afghanistan," Judge Brugui“re said. "The threat is moving to the Caucasus, because the jihad system needs a battleground."

In response to concerns that European cell members and new recruits are traveling to the Caucasus, France has opened up an inquiry focusing on Chechnya and Pankisi Gorge in Georgia.

Other officials and experts believe that video images of an American-led invasion of Iraq may ultimately hand Mr. bin Laden his most useful recruitment tool.

"Bin Laden's strategy has always been to demonstrate to the Islamic community that the West, and especially the U.S., is starting a global war against Muslims," Judge Bruguiere said. "An attack on Iraq might confirm this vision for many Muslims. I am very worried about the next wave of recruits."

Two points stand out: (1) that they're recruiting in Europe, which goes some way to explaining why the French and Germans are so scared; (2) the absurdity of the proposition that it will be easier to recruit as we destroy al Qaeda and the regimes that support it than it has been while we've lain docile and let them roll up one victory after another. The Germans may have been mad about the bombing of Dresden and the fall of Berlin, but they weren't exactly effective recruiting tools for the Nazis. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 16, 2003 7:12 AM