March 4, 2003

THE DADDY PARTY:

The GOP Changes Its Estrada Strategy: They’ll now force Democrats to vote on ending the filibuster. (Byron York, March 4, 2003, National Review)
Republican Sen. Rick Santorum has just announced a major change in the party's strategy in the Miguel Estrada confirmation fight. Santorum told reporters minutes ago that Republicans will file for cloture today, which will lead to a vote on Thursday.

So far, Republicans can count on just four Democratic votes in favor of Estrada, which will leave them short of the 60 votes needed to stop the Democratic filibuster. "We've sort of hit a wall now," Santorum said. "We haven't had anybody come forward in a week and a half, and at some point, you're going to have to change strategies to make this happen."

Santorum said the Republican strategy now "will be to put people on the record" through a cloture vote. Anticipating that Republicans will at first fail to reach 60 votes, Santorum added, "This will be one of many cloture votes."

"My guess is we will do another cloture vote next week and wait and see what happens," Santorum said. "If we're successful and pick up a vote, we may have some other options."


Why do Republicans always have to be the ones who behave responsibly? Just make the Democrats filibuster 24/7.

UPDATE:
Okay, Senate rules are famously complex, so I may well have this wrong--if you see differently please tell us--but it appears from this that by forcing a vote, the GOP would be effectively bringing Senate business to a halt until the filibuster ends, whereas as right now other measures can be considered on the floor while the filibuster goes on.

UPDATE:
That's apparently completely wrong. Please check the comments for more informed instruction.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 4, 2003 12:09 PM
Comments

I continue to hope they will prove me wrong and not behave as the Stupid Party, just once. We'll see.

Posted by: Kevin Whited at March 4, 2003 1:43 PM

Human nature is not plastic. We are the Stupid Party.

Posted by: oj at March 4, 2003 1:55 PM

I don't think the average citizen is paying attention to this and therefore doesn't see the Dem obstructionism.

I agree that they should make the Dems filibust 24/7 but if they can get on record Dem senators opposing Estrada and having to explain why 54 yes votes aren't enough then it should still hurt the Dems.

Posted by: AWW at March 4, 2003 1:56 PM

Remember when Clinton closed down the government, and the Republicans took the blame in the Liberal Media?



There's your answer.



Republicans have to be the ones who behave extra responsibly because the Liberal Media spin as much as possible into an indictment that blames Republicans for everything bad that DIMocRATs initiate/perpetuate.



The cloture vote makes some sense though, because what the Republicans (oops, I mean Karl Rove) want is to put DIMocRATs on the record as voting in bigotted fashion against a Hispanic.



You just can not underestimate the negative reaction this behavior of the DIMocRATs is going to have in the Hispanic community.



DIMocRATs are going to pay dearly for this, and they will pay dearly for virtually an eternity, because once the Hispanic community embraces the Repubican Party, given the traditional values inherent in the Hispanic community (read: Loyalty), it will be over for the DIMocRAT party, which then will house only Blacks and Liberals, neither of whom appear to be capable of "getting" political realities.



Watch Rove. He and the Republican leadership know just what is at stake here. And the DIMocRATs are justifiably terrified, because if George W gets two terms and the Republicans hold the Senate, and Bush gets through his Judiciary nominations, the Judiciary will be Conservative for a very long time.



The ramifications are enormous. Think of just how law schools are going to have to change to keep up with a Conservative Judiciary? All those Liberals who think they own today's law schools will have to pack their bags and send their resumes out to law firms in the Blue States.

Posted by: paul A'Barge at March 4, 2003 2:49 PM

Orrin -- holding the cloture vote is
making the Democrats filibuster. There isn't a filibuster until there's a motion to end debate, and they reject it. Republicans have, I think, been very cordial to the Democrats in letting them off the hook from casting votes heretofore. The cloture vote will put the Dems on the record as insisting upon continued debate rather than letting a vote take place that would confirm Estrada.



Santorum is taking a tough line toward the Dems when he says, "This will be one of many cloture votes."

Posted by: pj at March 4, 2003 3:09 PM

Orrin - Yes, you have misinterpreted Senate rules. The Republicans can, by majority vote, consider other business whenever they want. By majority vote, they can block the Democrats from bringing up other business until the Estrada nomination has been voted on. Frist says in the article you link that this is his plan:



Frist denies Estrada will hog up all floor time if they can't get a final vote soon, according to Congressional Quarterly.

"We'll stay on Estrada until we get an up or down vote," Frist said. "And we're going to look at other issues we need to address. It is likely we'll bring up other issues that are time-sensitive — stay focused on Estrada, but bring up other issues."





Of course the Democrats will charge that the Republican refusal to stop debating Estrada, thereby blocking them from bringing up their
issues, is unfair:



However, if the cloture vote fails, and Republicans can't get to a final vote, they could face criticism that they're holding up other legislation for one nominee.




But that's a problem the Dems can remedy simply by ending their filibuster and letting a vote happen, which Estrada would win easily. So this criticism is entirely specious.

Posted by: pj at March 4, 2003 4:29 PM

P.S. -- The CBS News reporter clearly spoke to both Republican and Democratic Senate officials for this story, and has repeated the Democratics attacks upon the Republican filibuster. Note 2 things: (a) no Democrats were willing to be quoted on the record, whereas Frist was happy to be quoted by name; (b) the Democrats offered no defense of the filibuster, rather they attacked Republicans for allowing the filibuster to continue by refusing to give up! Both facts indicate that the Democrats are running scared, embarrassed about the filibuster and afraid to be associated with it.

Posted by: pj at March 4, 2003 4:54 PM

pj:



Then how will the GOP be holding up other business?

Posted by: oj at March 4, 2003 5:07 PM

They won't. Any business the Republican majority wants to conduct, it can.



In the absence of a filibuster, the Senate would proceed through its calendar of bills, some of which are Democratic bills. Due to the filibuster, they'll be stuck on this one item, unless the Republicans allow another item to jump the queue of business. Until the filibuster ends, the Democrats can never get the debate to turn to subjects they would prefer to be talking about. It can only be ended in two ways: Democrats abandon it and vote for cloture; or Republicans abandon the Estrada nomination. Republicans will never do the latter, so the filibuster will continue until the Dems give up.



Soon, I predict they'll adopt a strategy of letting popular nominees like Estrada pass, and filibustering the white males like Pickering. A filibuster of Pickering would not be so beneficial to the GOP as the filibuster of Estrada is going to be. I think it's likely the Estrada filibuster will fold up this week, actually. The Dems are holding a losing hand, best to fold and go on to the next one.

Posted by: pj at March 4, 2003 5:25 PM

Any impending attack on Iraq, if it really does come within the next week, would be even worse for Seante Democrats, especially the left wing of the party. They'll be unable to attempt any restricting action without justifying their own refusal to allow an up or down vote which would allow other business proceed (they will try and spin it as being the Republicans' fault for forcing the cloture vote, of course, but the tortured logic that would require is probably too much for even their best friends in the media to put over).

Posted by: John at March 4, 2003 6:40 PM

oj - Rush Limbaugh got this wrong the other day too. The Senate majority has great powers to torment the minority by forcing them to debate and vote on politically sensitive or embarrassing (for them) issues. The Dems used that power to great effect, generating phantom legislation just to embarrass Republicans. Good to see the Republicans getting the hang of it. Thank God Trent Lott is gone, too.

Posted by: pj at March 4, 2003 8:06 PM

Some other sites (NRO) are calling this a big loss for the GOP as they see it as a sign of a cave in. Also they feel it sets a bad precendent of a 60 vote minimum on judges (which is only true when the Dems decide to filibuster)

I agree with PJ - this should make the Dems look bad and back down. And as John notes if they don't they look bad when the war starts and they are bogging down the Senate over Estrade (assuming the liberal media don't totally misrepresent this)

Posted by: AWW at March 4, 2003 10:21 PM

Expecting the Republicans to not be the Stupid Party is equivalent to expecting the Cubs to win the Series.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at March 4, 2003 11:52 PM
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