SNAFU:

Allies Adapt to Setbacks: While the campaign has not produced the swift victory for which the Bush administration clearly hoped, the American military is moving to adapt. (MICHAEL R. GORDON, 3/27/03, NY Times)

The Iraqis threw the allies a curve ball by deploying thousands of fedayeen and paramilitary forces in southern Iraq to engage in guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks. Indeed, the Iraqis are not shrinking from the fight: columns of vehicles carrying more paramilitary forces were heading south tonight from Baghdad to join the fray, according to American officials. Later, much fighting, including a fierce clash at Nasiriya that resulted in casualties on both sides, was reported.

The allies, however, are now countering by putting off the battle of Baghdad for at least some days and focusing their efforts on attacking the paramilitary groups in and around Najaf, Nasiriya, Samawa, Basra and other southern and central Iraqi cities.

With the limited ground forces the Bush administration has allocated for the initial phase of the campaign and the need to take care of threats in their rear, the United States military can hardly do anything else.

The planning and preparations for the drive to Baghdad, however, are very advanced. The next phase of the campaign is to take the fight to the Republican Guard divisions that are on or approaching the outskirts of the Iraqi capital and then begin ground attacks against key strongholds in Baghdad itself.

There seems to be no doubt among American commanders that this battle will take place relatively soon and that their forces will ultimately prevail.

"We have achieved several of our strategic objectives, the first of which was to seize the oil fields before destruction for the Iraqi people," said Maj. Gen. William Webster, the deputy commanding general of the allied ground command. "The enemy adjusted. The conditions changed. And we are staying on the balls of our feet."

The ultimate goal of the allied invasion is the overthrow of Mr. Hussein and his government. But there are also several important secondary objectives.

One was to seize Iraq's oil fields to ensure that they were not set aflame, either as a means of obscuring the battlefield or as an act of vengeance, by retreating Iraqi forces.

Indeed, intelligence reports that just seven of the oil wells in the Rumaila oil fields were on fire triggered last Thursday's land attack, a ground assault that in contrast to the 1991 Persian Gulf war, began before the air strikes began in earnest.

Besides ensuring that very few of the oil wells were set alight, allied warplanes and special forces also have been successful so far in preventing Iraq from launching Scud missiles at Israel, also a considerable undertaking and one that is a high priority given the United States desire to keep Israel out of the war.

The allies have not been able to stop the Iraqis from firing surface-to-surface missiles at American forces in Kuwait, including some aimed at the land war command center here. But the Patriot antimissile batteries deployed by the allies have shot down the vast majority of the missiles, while the remainder have fallen harmlessly in the desert or the Persian Gulf.

In terms of the invasion itself, allied forces have penetrated deep into Iraq and have managed to get across the Euphrates River. The key port of Umm Qasr has been taken.

The main focus now is eliminating the fedayeen and other paramilitary groups in southern Iraq or at least reducing them to the point where they become a mere nuisance, not a major threat.

Because our press is so hysterical and so many of the opinion-making class in the West oppose the war, these rather miinor setbacks are being conflated into catastrophe, when, as Mr. Gordon says, much has already been accomplished, we're adapting quickly to a fluid situation, and the final results are in no doubt. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 27, 2003 8:56 AM