March 21, 2003
SHOE IN:
H. D. Miller predicts Baghdad will fall by Monday and says why. Persoonally, I think that whoever's "in charge" will surrender by some time tomorrow but I don't know if we can get the level of troops there to take control that one assumes we'd require. So Baghdad may fall without being taken.
Indeed. it seems likely that in retrospect we'll come to see that the war was effectively won by the time we announced it had begun. Also--and I don't mean this cynically, because I think it was strategically necessary--we'll realize that the Pentagon has known that the decapitation worked (whether Saddam is actually dead or not) but has pursued the war in order to genuinely disarm Iraq, lest weapons end up in the hands of Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurds who might turn them on each other.
MORE:
Baghdad by Monday (Patrick Sawer, 3/21/03, Evening Standard)
Senior British and US commanders today predicted that allied forces could be in Baghdad by Monday. The claim came after US marines captured a key section of the southern Iraqi port of Umm Qasr. [...]There was growing speculation this afternoon that Saddam and one of his sons were killed or injured in the first bombing raids on Baghdad, despite Iraqi denials. One US official said: "The preponderance of the evidence is he [Saddam] was there when the building blew up."
After being pinned down in a two-hour firefight US troops this afternoon moved into the new port area of Umm Qasr. They had to call in British artillery fire to clear their path, and a dozen helicopters brought reinforcements.
Marines raised the US flag over the new port but later removed it. No reason was given but Washington has consistently stressed invading US forces want to liberate Iraq, not occupy it. [...]
In a further sign of French anger at the US-led attack, its foreign ministry rejected US demands to expel Iraqi diplomats from Paris.
There's an equally interesting question, as when Baghdad will fall: how long will the French will continue to recognize the Ba'athist government of Iraq, even though it no longer exists. Smart money says two years. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2003 1:48 PM
The Canadians did, too, and if I understand their cockamamie Human Rights rule, they will have to keep them indefinitely if they request -- as presumably they will -- status as political refugees.
The Canadians may have a little trouble squaring this with the ICC, but no doubt they have their finest legal minds on the case already.
Keep a close eye on Fox News tomorrow - they have people with the 3rd ID and were broadcasting live video all last night and into the morning of the advance. 3rd ID was at the Euphrates (Nasiriyah) last I heard; I think they've gone into bivouac for the night (even super soldiers have to get some shut-eye), but should be getting moving again any time now, as it's close to 5 AM Iraqi time. If your prediction is correct, we should be seeing some astounding sights tomorrow.
Posted by: Joe at March 21, 2003 9:04 PM