RECESSIONAL:

Europe shrinking as birthrates decline (Mark Henderson, March 28, 2003 , Times of London)

EUROPE’S population will continue to decline for decades even if birthrates improve significantly, researchers have calculated.

Trends towards smaller families and later motherhood mean that there are too few women of childbearing age to reverse the decline in the near future, according to an Austrian study. The year 2000 marked a turning point, with the population’s “momentum” becoming negative; there will be fewer parents in the next generation than in this one. [...]

They show that Europe’s population could decline by as much as 88 million people if present trends continue for another 15 years. The population of the European Union was about 375 million in 2000.

The decline made Europe the scene of a significant social experiment, Dr Lutz said. “Negative momentum has not been experienced on a large scale in world history so far,” he added.

The truly astonishing thing about this is that the Europeans were trying to do this and it was only by the Grace of God, the genuis of the Founders, the determination of conservatives, and the good sense and character of the American people that we've avoided a similar fate. The experiment, advocated by our own Left too, was a rational effort to control population and it has worked. But now come the unintended consequences that they were warned about but refused to listen to. Here are a few:

(1) At a time of rising animus towards Muslim immigrants, Europe will be increasingly dependent on ever greater immigration just to fund the retirement and health systems of the aging "European" population. Yet, over time, as the immigrants become the majority and the tensions keep torquing up, who seriously thinks will they pay the extortioniate tax rates that the elderly require of them? (I don't know the similar numbers for Europe, but: in 1935, there were 37 workers for every retiree. Today, the number of workers per retiree is 3.4 and falling. What is a system that requires recent immigrants to support elderly natives but a form of modern slavery?) And as these societies reach that tipping point, where "Europeans" perceive that their nation is about to become predominantly Islamic, imagine the potential for even genocidal violence that will exist. The argument that Germany and France are too advanced to exterminiate a hated minority refutes itself.

(2) Given the adaptability of humans it is, of course, possible that Europe will surprise us all, but consider that we have no, or few, examples of societies being able to maintain a healthy and growing economy while their populations declined. Folks have come up with all kinds of explanations for the fact that the American economy has so outperformed those of other Western countries in recent decades. But perhaps the easiest explanation is that their growth has slowed--in the case of Japan it's reversed--as their populations have first stabilized and then headed into real decline. Meanwhile, the U.S. which experienced unimagined economic growth during the '90s--sufficient even to pull Europe along somewhat in our wake--also experienced an unexpected population surge and is now predicted to be in for a doubling of its population over the coming century. Suffice it to say, it seems at least imprudent for Europe to count on an ability to defy human history.

(3) It has been possible in recent decades for Europeans to imagine that they were done with war forever. America protected them after WWII and asked nothing in return--in fact transferring money to them--both directly (in things like the Marshall Plan) and indirectly, by covering defense costs--which helped them restart and artificially prop up their welfare states. The fall of the Soviet Union brought dreams of an href=http://www.brothersjudd.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/reviews.detail/book_id/742>End of History, which might see all the nations of the world tend toward pacific liberal democracy. Here was a future which would require neither the young men nor the expenditures of public money that make national defense and war possible. And so, there are no young men and those monies are spent on social programs for the aging.

But, 9-11 at least deferred the dream that History was at an end. The Islamic world may well end up reforming toward liberal democracy, but it looks like we're in for some number of years of bloodshed first. Worse, the reluctance of Europe to shed blood--its own or that of others--and the seeming eagerness of America to do so in their stead, has led to a quite acrimonious break between the parties who were already drifting away from each other as Europe declined and America continued to rise in economic affluence and military power. So now the Europeans talk of developing their own defense apparatus and some kind of standing military, but at a time when they are utterly incapable of either funding or manning such a force.

In the cold gray light of dawn, for all the Franco-German chest-beating, they face a choice between accepting--openly or with a grudging wink and a nod--the status of American client-states or of shredding the social contract that has defined their welfare states and thereby causing massive disruptions (imagine telling a 58 year old Frenchman, one year away from retirement and working a 35 hour week, that you're adding five hours to his workweek and six years to his retirement age?). Or, they could just roll over and play dead, hoping the danger passes but unable to control their circumstances at all. It's a menu of unpleasant choices.

(4) European Civilization, like Islamic Civilization, was once great but now finds itself eclipsed and in decline. As with Islam, it's easy enough to see how to rectify the situation, but much harder to do. Where Islam must relax the death grip that religion has on governance and the economy, Europe must abandon the statism that has atomized society and must restore religion, civil society, community and family so that they can provide the social network to replace transfer payments from the government. In effect, both must become more like us--though we too face problems similar to Europe's if we aren't vigilant. But, understandably, both abhor the idea. Still, look at the psychic damage that the Muslim world's inferiority complex has caused it and imagine what lies ahead for Europe as it sinks into similar despondency and rages against the dying of the light (though, luckily for us, unless old ladies take up the hobby, there'll be no suicide bombings--they can't spare the young men).

I hope none of this sounds triumphalist, for I regret the passing of Europe, as well as the continuing self-inflicted agony of Islam, and would like nothing better than a revival, a reawakening, a renaissance, a reformation, what have you. But I fear that Kipling long ago wrote the epitaph:

Recessional (Rudyard Kipling)

GOD of our fathers, known of old--
   Lord of our far-flung battle-line--
Beneath whose awful Hand we hold
   Dominion over palm and pine--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget!

The tumult and the shouting dies--
   The captains and the kings depart--
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
   An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget!

Far-call'd our navies melt away--
   On dune and headland sinks the fire--
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
   Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget!

If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
   Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe--
Such boasting as the Gentiles use
   Or lesser breeds without the Law--
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget, lest we forget!

For heathen heart that puts her trust
   In reeking tube and iron shard--
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
   And guarding calls not Thee to guard--
For frantic boast and foolish word,
Thy Mercy on Thy People, Lord!

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 28, 2003 7:58 AM