March 31, 2003
OUR ONLY HOPE IS RETREAT:
Offense and Defense (Seymour Hersh, New Yorker, 3/31/2003)“It’s a stalemate now,” the former intelligence official told me. “It’s going to remain one only if we can maintain our supply lines.... The Marines are worried as hell,” the former intelligence official went on. “They’re all committed, with no reserves, and they’ve never run the lavs”—light armored vehicles—“as long and as hard” as they have in Iraq. There are serious maintenance problems as well. “The only hope is that they can hold out until reinforcements come.”...The planner agreed, saying, “The only way out now is back, and to hope for some kind of a miracle"... “Hope,” a retired four-star general subsequently told me, “is not a course of action.”...
Scott Ritter ... noted that much of the bombing has had little effect or has been counterproductive. For example, the bombing of Saddam’s palaces has freed up a brigade of special guards who had been assigned to protect them ...
The New Yorker had a tough task writing a persuasive "we're losing the war" piece. They had to explain why, as we inflict casualty rates of more than 100-to-1 on the Iraqis, and steadily seize key targets such as airfields, highways, bridges over the Tigris and Euphrates, the Umm Qasr port, and oilfields, these apparent victories are actually defeats. The 'experts' willing to support this line for attribution were the likes of Scott Ritter.
My own view is that the war plan has been brilliant. Things have gone better than I dared hope. As we develop the airfields (Tallil, H2, H3, and others), re-open the Umm Qasr port, and open additional highways, we'll be able to step up the flow of supplies and press the battle more aggressively. It's not clear that more troops would help us, because right now we appear to be supply-limited, not force-limited, and water and food for additional troops would take the place of fuel and ammunition for the existing forces. Existing forces are steadily destroying the struts that keep the regime standing, and sooner or later the whole regime is going to crash, probably with as little warning as the Taliban fell. Working with half the forces may lengthen the war, but it's unlikely to increase our casualty count -- in fact, by easing logistical problems and avoiding heavy concentrations of forces, it probably reduces the risk of large casualties from ammunition-short forces or lucky WMD hits. We have no time constraints, and can afford to patiently weaken the regime until it falls.
Posted by Paul Jaminet at March 31, 2003 12:17 PMSy Hersh seems to be running about 50/50 on "worth listening to" vs. "what the bloody hell are you babbling about??"
He's quoting Scott Ritter. Say no more.
BTW, "freeing up the Republican Guards from guarding palaces" seems to remind me of Jefferson Davis speech after Robert Lee's surrender, when he basically said "Freed from the burden of guarding cities (like, say, Richmond), our forces are now empowered to take to the hills and bring ruin upon the Yankees", etc. etc. World's first spin doctor??
How are the Iraqi forces going to resupply themselves if this takes weeks or months?
Posted by: oj at March 31, 2003 3:56 PMHersh is being run by somebody in DC who wants to be president. I don't know who, but somebody in the Army.
Recall that last fall, Hersh was saying Franks was a failure and would be replaced. That was undoubtedly inspired by the man who expected to replace Franks.
Didn't work, as Bush apparently likes Franks. So now \
whoever is running Hersh is trying a different approach.
This person expects to be the next Ike.
Can I prove it? No. Am I right? Yes.
Scott,
The "Guards" were released from palace duty alright. Those left alive are probably catonic.
By the way, are you going to get the pictures back from Usay?
Er... catatonic that is.
Posted by: Genecis at March 31, 2003 6:28 PMYes, the Marines are clearly having logistical problems. We can either a) fix them or b) whine and score political points.
As for those palace guards: They got bombed out of the palace and now they are getting bombed in the field. BFD.
Hersh is being run by somebody in DC who wants to be president. I don't know who, but somebody in the Army.
That might be Gen Wesley Clark, head of NATO under Clinton during the Kosovo war. I believe he is interested in running as a Democrat. (I don't know if he formally declared yet.)
The Marines on Guadalcanal had real logistics
problems. The navy sailed away with most of
their food and munitions following the defeat
of Savo Island.
The Marines came to stay, though, and despite
eating nothing but beans, and that only twice
a day, for weeks, they routed the Japanese.
These logistical problems, while they are
actual problems in logistics, don't amount to
much in the context of a large operation, and
and not unusual.
Of course, there isn't a reporter in the gulf
who knows anything about military operations,
so they are all excited. What morons.