March 21, 2003
LET HISTORY JUDGE:
Bush set sights on Saddam after 9/11, never looked back (Mar 21, 2003, USA TODAY)Within weeks of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, the president and his most influential advisers set a goal of toppling Saddam -- if possible by coup or exile, more likely by force. Bush began to make the case to the world with his speech to the United Nations a year and a day after the attacks.With Wednesday's decision, Bush finally pulled the trigger. But the gun was cocked for a long time, since the Sept. 12, 2002, speech. The six months since then have been a time of diplomatic maneuvers, military deployments, rhetorical shifts and single-minded determination.
Bush refused to let anything deter him:
* He minimized a nuclear showdown with North Korea that even some administration officials believed posed a more immediate threat. The divisions within the president's inner circle over North Korea were severe. When New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson told Secretary of State Colin Powell that he had gotten a call from North Korean diplomats, Powell said Richardson should go ahead and meet with them -- but told him to avoid talking about it to Powell's rivals in the administration.
* He dismissed the complaints of then-Senate Intelligence Chairman Bob Graham, D-Fla., and others that in targeting Iraq as the second front in the war on terrorism, the administration was shortchanging the first battleground, in Afghanistan and against al-Qaeda. A senior Defense Department official worried that combat operations in Afghanistan last spring were poorly planned because the Central Command was preoccupied with the next war.
* He was defiant when the U.N. Security Council refused to endorse the resolution he and British Prime Minister Tony Blair had sought to pave the way for the attack. The president had fought hard behind the scenes for the U.N. imprimatur. After a private White House dinner with Secretary-General Kofi Annan, he included an initiative to fight AIDS in Africa in the State of the Union address. Annan had mentioned the issue as a personal priority.
Administration officials even found themselves addressing other worldly matters as they lobbied the president of Guinea, one of the Security Council's 15 members. He was desperately ill with kidney disease. His concern: Which vote was more likely to get him into heaven?
In the end, it was Bush's unyielding determination that undermined the diplomatic campaign. Skeptical foreign leaders complained that the administration's earlier willingness to go to the United Nations and agree to renewed weapons inspections in Iraq was only for show. The president had his mind made up, they said, no matter what.
Some top administration officials agree.
''He was not going to be easily deterred or distracted,'' a senior adviser says. ''It would have taken nothing less than an Iraqi capitulation. Either Saddam and his inner circle would have had to leave or they would have had to really, truly, completely, verifiably disarm. Bottom line: Bush was not looking for a way out.''
Aides and outsiders interviewed for this article cite a mix of motives behind the president's focus -- some call it an obsession -- on Iraq: His view of Saddam as a brutal despot who threatened Israel and unsettled the Middle East. An almost Shakespearean impulse to finish the job his father had started. The prospect of more-stable oil supplies.
Bush himself says he is thinking about the verdict of history.
More than anything, what this story points out is the deep inanity of the neocon and libertarian Right's absurd "wobbly watch". It's easy enough for conservatives to point out how badly Democrats and the Europeans have misunderstood George W. Bush, but the blogosphere and publications like the Weekly Standard have shown no greater comprehension. This war was never a question of whether, only of when. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2003 2:29 PM
If we grant all that, what was the purpose of the wait? To lure the stupid North Koreans into the open so they could be next?
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 21, 2003 5:39 PMGoverning differs from punditizing. Presidents have constituencies, allies, etc. Writers have themselves.
Posted by: oj at March 21, 2003 5:50 PMHarry - the purposes of delay were:
1. To give the peaceniks and troublemakers something to give their attention to while U.S. forces built up around Iraq.
2. To give Saddam hope that he could find a diplomatic escape from war, so that he would hold off on terror and WMD until he could be defeated quickly.
3. To complete the destruction of al Qaeda, Saddam's WMD delivery system to the U.S., prior to the war, a task that was brilliantly completed following the arrest of Khalid Shaik Mohammed.
4. To build up diplomatic support in Europe by showing respect for the U.N., thereby helping Tony Blair, Jose Maria Aznar, Silvio Berlusconi, etc., and giving the lie to leftist charges of unilateralism.
5. To let people around the world debate the issue at length, thereby coming to an understanding of the pro-war arguments, and a sense of inevitability about the war, so that their will to resist would be sapped when war finally came.
6. To achieve a similar psychological effect on the Iraqi military, undermining their will-to-resist.
7. To flush out Saddam's enablers like France, preparing public opinion for future retaliation against France.
And Bush's constituency and ally count has gone up in the past few months? I don't see that.
As for Paul's list, I'm not so sure 3 was accomplished; we'll see.
1. is not something I'd invest in.
2. is very speculative.
4. a wash, at best.
5. didn't happen as far as I can see.
6. would have come about instantaneously when the bomb bay doors opened.
7. another goal of dubious value, which would (and will) have been achieved by opening the archives once we've captured them. And we are not going to retaliate against France. I'll renew my bet: case of fresh Maui pineapple v. whatever the equivalent is where you are. Say, 6 months?
Harry:
Ten years. People whose ideologies differ eventually go to fist city over something or other (with France the most likely trigger is the coming genocide of its own Muslim population). France is destined to be an enemy unless it dies too quickly of its own accord to be worth fighting.
This is, in part, why I quit reading Instapundit months ago. The whole "wobbly watch" stuff was insufferable given that, as Mr. Judd pointed out, none of the pundits actually have to deal with the real world of politics and military strategics.
And, Mr. Eager, you say that all that need be done as far as flushing out the enablers like France is to open the archives. But is a paper trail that may or may not exist as effective as Chirac himself opening his mouth and obstructing the USA?
Well, I tend to take the historical view. If
you've read all three hilarious volumes
of DeGaulle's memoirs, you already had
contempt for France.
Of course, if we had gone in like a ruthless
superpower, appropriating ports and
flying over faux-states without permission,
then the world would have concluded that
Bush is an oil-thirsty cowboy and that
the US is a unilateralist hegemon.
Bush's patient diplomacy avoided that
horrible outcome, didn't it?
