March 12, 2003
IT'S ALWAYS DARKEST BEFORE THE DAWN:
Blair Goes Wobbly (David Warren, 3/12/2003)
The revelations of the last few days -- including the discovery by U.N. inspectors in Iraq of such "smoking guns" as a gas-spewing air drone, and delivery devices for chemical and biological bombs; the revelation on Al-Jazeera TV of one of Saddam's suicide-terrorist camps; the public threat by a member of Iraq's cabinet to gas the Kurds again; multiple reports of the placing of explosives in Iraqi oil wells both north and south; the allegation that France has been shipping spare parts for the repair of Saddam's air fleet through third parties in the Gulf -- such overwhelming evidence of the true state of affairs is ignored alike by media and diplomats. They have reached their decision, to isolate and damage the United States as much as possible, and grant Saddam a pass....The French et al. smell blood, they are not going to back off now when they see the prospect of doing real damage. Their strategy was from the beginning to split the British from the Americans by humbling Mr. Blair, to delay the inevitable full-scale attack into the Iraqi hot season, when the fighting would be more difficult and thus the casualties higher; to isolate the U.S. diplomatically; to galvanize the international peace movement against the Bush administration; and to improve Saddam's prospects for creating a catastrophe when war comes.
The French betrayal is as total as it was surprising, after earnest promises from President Chirac to support the U.S. in return for elaborate concessions on U.N. Resolution 1441. They think they now have President Bush in a fox-trap: from which he cannot escape without chewing off a leg. They may be right: he may now have no choice but to chew off the British leg.
We have the cooperation of Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and perhaps Saudi Arabia; that is all we truly need. We must defeat Saddam, then expose the French alliance with Saddam so that French and European opinion can help us contain France while we deal with North Korea, Iran, and Syria. Posted by Paul Jaminet at March 12, 2003 12:28 AM
I really don't agree it was surprising, it was french. they just finally upped the ante.
Posted by: Sandy P at March 12, 2003 2:13 AMEven if Blair were to fall, it is astonishing how much France ha overplayed their hand. Suppose the British government is replaced with a more anti-US, pro-EU PM. Does France really thing that centuries of antipathy will evaporate, and that the UK will gloriously submit to the Frankenreich?
Meanwhile, not just Bush, but the US as a whole, is on the verge of simply deciding that France is a flat out hostile regime. Thus USA power and influence will be used to undermine the Franco dominated EU at every opportunity, for the indefinite future. If it helps France, we will work against it... period. Meanwhile, the UN, certainly as structured now, is as good as dead. So therefore every country in the region will ask themselves, what does France/US have to offer us that the other does not? That's a damn hard question for France to answer. Can they provide security, money, technology, and force when needed? Wedo know they will be happy to provide their neighbors with "a good opportunity to shut up".
Not a bad half-year's work, there, Jacque.
I think Schroeder is a lot closer to facing the scenario described above than Chirac. In fact, the CDU has already begun positioning as a credible alternative to "pointless hostility" towards the US. France is a bit more complicated. And Schroeder's unpopularity in Germany rivals that of Davis in California.
Institutionally, you would think that the center-right President (Chirac) would have little accountability for any downside incurred in antagonizing the US (because the rest of the country is either to the left of him, or xenophobically anti-American). But this would ignore French treachery in general, and Chirac's low personal credibility, in particular. I think some in his governing coallition will turn the heat on him on principle, but the rest, including all in the Left (remember he got elected because the Left self-destructed) will then turn on him heartily unearthing all the skeletons he has buried through his career.
First of all, I don't know whether a majority in the US shares that hostile view of France. The way I see it, the Democrats are completely in love with France and the chance that they will rule after '04 seems very high now (Bush is toast : the war is lost and the economy is in shambles).
Second, when a new Carter-Clinton is president, there won't be much American power or influence to use. The entire world will make a fool of the US.
Third, it will be the islamofascist allies of Chirac who provide peace and security in much of the world. The peace and security of the graveyard. The rest will be policed by the likes of Putin and the Chinese.
Thank you, Mr Chirac, for creating such a lovely place. You're 70, so you won't have to live in it for very long. But we do and it stinks.
As the man said, "It's always darkest before dawn."
But dawn will come.
Peter -
"the war is lost and the economy is in shambles"
Nice DNC talking points. If Bush acts in Iraq all expectations are that it will be quick and decisive war. Almost all economists believe the indecision on Iraq and has dragged down the economy and once Iraq is dealt with the economy, especially with lower oil prices, will spring back (see latest Greenspan testimony). And polls continue to show the Dems are a joke on national security issues.
If the elections were right around the corner (i.e. its September 2004) I might agree with you but with over a year to go I'm sticking with the Dems are toast prediction for 2004
Geez, Peter, I pride myself on my dyspeptic pessimism, but I bow to the master.
Posted by: David Cohen at March 12, 2003 9:33 AMI think Peter's British and he's projecting what's happened to Blair onto Bush.
Posted by: pj at March 12, 2003 10:53 AMWhen did Turkey get on our side? Did I miss something?
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 12, 2003 3:26 PMUS troops are offshore waiting the go-ahead, their equipment is already in Turkey on the Iraqi border, and the new Turkish prime minister is as we speak trying to decide whether to hold a new parliamentary vote, or just pass the US troops through without benefit of clergy.
Posted by: pj at March 12, 2003 3:59 PMAnd they began off-loading last week--even before the new prime minister was elected.
Posted by: oj at March 12, 2003 10:39 PM