March 14, 2003

IRELAND AND JORDAN JOIN THE WILLING:

Ahern signals use of Shannon for US war (Irish Examiner, 3/14/2003)

Bertie Ahern has given his strongest indication yet that the US will be able to use Shannon Airport regardless of UN backing for war in Iraq.

Meanwhile . . . US, UK may use air space of Israel and Jordan (Financial Times, 3/14/2003)

The US and UK could use Jordanian and Israeli airspace to launch air strikes on Iraq if Turkey continues to refuse permission for allied bombers to operate out of its airbases to support an invasion.... Amman has tacitly agreed to overflight rights for allied aircraft.

I bet war starts Monday night. We can't leave our Arab allies exposed for long. Posted by Paul Jaminet at March 14, 2003 5:44 PM
Comments

Case of fresh pineapples v. a big tin of maple syrup says you're wrong.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 14, 2003 7:13 PM

How big?

Posted by: pj at March 14, 2003 7:40 PM

I was hoping the Turkey deal was a huge red herring and we would come at them, surprisingly, from that base. Fat chance?

Posted by: Neil at March 14, 2003 7:58 PM

Turkey was never going to be a main staging ground for attack, because the Turkey-Iraq border is very mountainous with few roads and you couldn't squeeze enough soldiers through. Turkey is valuable for overfly rights and as a staging area for a small number of troops to protect the Kurds once war starts. I assume we'll get overfly rights . . . but Turkey has not been doing a good job of negotiating so far, and they might try to drive too hard a bargain even for that.

Posted by: pj at March 14, 2003 11:57 PM

Oh ye of excessive faith.



I would gladly take that bet.



Bush has been saying that the Iraq disarmament issue would be resolved in a matter of weeks not months since September of 2002.

Posted by: TBC at March 15, 2003 12:17 AM

One suspects he'll wait for the vote in the House of Commons, but it should all be over before the NCAA tournament is (with fewer upsets).

Posted by: oj at March 15, 2003 8:04 AM

TBC - I understand your frustration with the wait (OJ has chided me for my waffling) but I expect action this week.

I think Bush went to the UN for domestic political reasons, for Tony Blair, and to bide time for the military buildup. I think the administration didn't expect that the UN dance would take this long, the snafus with the military buildup, and the go to the wall obstructionism of France/Germany. But I believe Bush has decided enough is enough and is going to go.

Posted by: AWW at March 15, 2003 10:43 AM

2 quarts.



Turkey's army going to protect Kurds. Best

joke I've heard all week.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 15, 2003 1:32 PM

We have a saying here: when AWW goes off wobbly watch, the war's about to begin.

Posted by: oj at March 15, 2003 2:17 PM

OJ - thanks for the status. My problem was that I'd go to other sites (left unamed but I think you know which ones) that were ripping Bush for not going 6 months ago before coming to yours. With your patient couseling (and ignoring those other sites) I have become much less wobbly

Posted by: AWW at March 15, 2003 9:38 PM
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