March 21, 2003
GIVE WAR A CHANCE:
There's obviously still much that could go wrong in the Second Iraq War and we'll surely lose more men, even if just through mechanical malfunctions or friendly fire, so I don't wish to minimize the task ahead or the risks these brave souls continue to face, but we're rapidly approaching a rather profound moment in American history. The great--and I believe mistaken--lesson of the the first two world wars was that war was too terrible an enterprise--too lethal with modern weaponry, particularly for "non-combatants"--to be contemplated anymore. Thus we got the Cold War for fifty years, with only a very few low grade conflicts between the main parties, as we decided that we'd rather tolerate the most anti-human ideology man's ever come up with, and mass murders from Nicaragua to China to Russia to Ethiopia and beyond, than fight briefly, though brutally, to put a stop to it. The argument--though ultimately specious--that we could not risk killing millions, including our own, in the late 40s to depose the Marxist regime in Russia at least had the advantage that it was likely that many would die. The war would in fact have been terrible and we must therefore have some regard for the moral case against it.
However, at least since the early 80s--and arguably since 1945--it has been obvious that the West's technological, cultural, political, and military superiority over the various "isms" that it finds itself arrayed against from time to time is so great that when we choose to do so we can replace the most brutal and tyrannous regimes with a rather minimal loss of human life. Moreover, where it was initially the case that such warfare merely imposed less suffering on non-combatants than did the dictatorships themselves, it is increasingly the case that our methods of combat inflict almost no direct suffering on civilians. The list continues to grow--Grenada, Panama, Afghanistan, soon Iraq--of countries where we deposed despicable rulers at minimal human cost.
So here's the profound question: if it is the case that we can rid peoples of such regimes and manifestly improve their lives, even save their lives, with such minimal impact, has the moral obligation now clearly shifted (assuming the case the anti-war folks made had prevailed) from one where we must try to avoid war because of the suffering it might cause to one where we must embrace war because of the suffering and death it so clearly relieves? In what sense is the moral position that demanded we contain Saddam from 1991 until Wednesday, at the expense of 1.5 million dead Iraqis, superior to that which requires us to liberate Iraq, at a cost of several hundred or several thousand lives? Isn't the hard question that confronts us all today, but the peace party in particular, whether we behaved decently and responsibly towards fellow human beings when we left the Iraqis to Saddam's mercies in 1991? And, going forward, mustn't we reckon with a far different moral calculus than that which has been commonly accepted as we begin to consider what course of action is right and just with regard to N. Korea, Cuba, Syria, Libya, Zimbabwe, etc.? May we not be in the midst of an unusual and as yet unrecognized epoch in our affairs where war is not the worst but the best option available to us and to captive peoples? Which do we place a higher value on, as a society, our peace or human freedom? And can we love our society if we choose the former?
Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2003 11:50 AMI agree with your post but the average American is likely to tire of idealism pretty easily and prefer a "return to normalcy" unless advancing human freedom can be done very cheaply in terms of blood and treasure and if there's somewhat of a threat to national security.
Posted by: M Ali Choudhury at March 21, 2003 1:10 PMFreeing Tibet wouldn't be so cheap.
Anyhow, I'm way ahead of you on the easy ones, Orrin. I've been saying so for years. But they're not all, or even usually, so easy as you think.
Besides, your whole moral calculus assumes (against your stated pessimism) that most people prefer the most difficult form of social organization (free self-government), for which there is little evidence. Not much point overthrowing the czar if you get Lenin, or even Kerensky.
Harry:
I don't think we can make them like us--I think we can remove the tyrants who are least like us.
Also, you were soft on the USSR and you're hesitant on N./Korea, so you're ideologically suspect. :)
If I were the HDWIC (Head Dude What's in Charge) I would:
1. Give the UN the single digit salute.
2. Form a Union of Democratic Nations. Entry requirements: free speech, contested elections, open economy
3. Then let the rest of the world know we would be hard pressed to care less about what they do, unless it involves pestering their neighbors or turning their countries into abbattoirs (spelling?).
The proven fact that the UDM could deliver an unanswerable schwacking could well reign in psycopathic heads of governments.
Oh, BTW, I'm not having anymore coffee today.
I confess to being soft on the USSR (but only because I don't like to lose wars), but you misinterpret me on No. Korea.
I have said for a long time, that once you show you're the meanest SOB in the valley, from then on, you can do all your diplomacy by postcard: just let the other guys know what's required of them and they'll comply.
That's why Bush's surrender to China over the spy plane was so dangerous. Now China thinks it can play games in No. Korea and, no matter what, the US won't make China pay.
The Koreans already paid 2 million dead, I'm not happy about asking them to pay more.
Orrin - Add one more argument in support of removing these dictatorships -- the proliferation of WMD makes the continuance of these dictatorships much more dangerous to us than they were in the past.
Posted by: Paul Jaminet at March 22, 2003 11:15 AMI hate to be a pessimist (well, ok, I don't actually hate it) but I think we're close to (i.e.
, within 25 years of) the death of nonproliferation.
The knowledge is not that esoteric. I am at best a casually knowledgeable layman, but even I know in broad theory how to make a nuclear device. Not that I could even begin to make one, but you don't need to know a lot more than I do. Working with the precision needed used to be a stumbling block, but machines with more or less the right tolerances are readily available.
Frankly, the big issue now is coming up with 35kg of enriched Uranium. That's a big obstacle, but for how long?
I'll have to think more on this proposal of yours, Orrin, but the utilitarian calculus implicit here worries me. immediately.
Moreover, while I think we can all agree that the overthrow of cruel tyrannies is a just cause, the prudential question of whether war is the right method is still surely an open one. Nor can it be settled by an appeal to abstraction; it will always depend on the specific circumstances.
