March 25, 2003
FASTER, PUSSYCAT, KILL, KILL:
WINNING BIG (RALPH PETERS, March 24, 2003, NY Post)[W]e've taken casualties and American soldiers have been captured - doesn't that mean we're in trouble? No. I wish it were otherwise, but, in any war - especially one of this magnitude - soldiers die, suffer wounds, or fall into enemy hands. We cherish every servicemember and mourn every loss. But, to be frank, our losses thus far are remarkably low, given the scale of our enterprise.We may lose considerably higher numbers of casualties before this war is over. But I can promise you that our military commanders are relieved by the low level of our losses to date.
Are the Iraqis really trying to lure us deep into their country so they can spring a trap on our forces? The Iraqis have no choice in the matter. Our troops go where they want to go.
Yes, the Iraqis are probably planning a large military confrontation, an operational-level ambush, close to Baghdad - while forces remaining in our rear area attack our supply lines. They may even have left some of the bridges across the Euphrates standing on purpose.
If so, it was a grave error. If those Republican Guards divisions confront our forces, they simply will not survive. Even if their plan includes the use of chemical weapons.
Thus far, our troops have performed magnificently, seizing an ever-growing list of airfields, bridges, roads, oil fields and other critical infrastructure, enabling us to maneuver swiftly and freely, while preserving the backbone of Iraq's economy for its people. And we prevented an ecological catastrophe, although those on the left will never credit us for doing so.
Even if the Iraqis have some ambitious master plan they still believe they can spring on us, they never expected to lose so much of their country so quickly. They are reeling; any plan could only be executed piecemeal, at this point.
After less than four days of ground operations, the Iraqis have lost control over half their country, they have lost control over most of their military, and allied forces are closing in on Baghdad.
But what about the "Battle of Baghdad"? Will it be a bloodbath? Haven't the Iraqis already lured us into urban warfare in the south? No. The Iraqis haven't lured us into anything. We have consistently imposed our plan and our will upon the enemy. While there have been some incidences of urban combat to date, with friendly casualties, our forces are far better prepared for such encounters than are the Iraqis. The Marine Corps, especially, has been training intensively in urban environments.
We are not going to be lured into a "Stalingrad" in Baghdad. Ignore the prophets of doom, who have been wrong consistently. As this column has steadily maintained, we have time, but Saddam doesn't. If we have to sit in a ring around Baghdad for several weeks while the last resistance is dismantled in innovative ways, then that's what we'll do.
Grave dangers lie ahead. Only a fool would underestimate them. But this war is not being run against a clock. The counsel that we must all be patient and let our troops do their jobs remains the best a former soldier can offer.
As long as the American people keep their perspective - which they will - it really doesn't matter how many journalists lose theirs.
One notion that seems especially odd is that those forces most loyal to Saddam, those Republican Guards and Special Republican Guards, are the best fighting forces in Iraq and will represent heightened danger. Is Saddamism really an indicator of worth? Posted by Orrin Judd at March 25, 2003 12:44 PM
Well the more loyal the force, the more likely they will have received better pay, equipment and training.
And they'll probably be highly motivated too.
An odd question. The reasons a body of soldiers fights well or poorly are complex. Germans certainly fought well for Hitler.
I was ruminating this morning about what Clauswitz called "trophies." Much of "On War" is about what makes an army break. Trophies -- flags, artillery pieces etc. -- are the detritus of a broken army.
The breakup can turn into panic. There is little doubt in my mind that if the Allies in 1991 had pressed forward, the panic would have spread everywhere, including even
Saddam's elite troops, and the regime would have collapsed without the presence of foreign forces in Baghdad.
It seems probable that the situation today is much less favorable to a mass panic. What has happened so far has been merely "driving in the pickets" -- meaningless in an operational sense.
But because the Iraqi troops are still intact behind lines, there is nothing so far to spark off a panic. It might come, but it's usually easier to spook the second-line troops, and have the panic spread to the best formations. It was the collapse of the Rumanians at Stalingrad that scuppered the German Sixth Army.
Just speculation based on general principles; I have no specific information.
Harry:
Germans fought well. Is there any evidence that the most psychotic SS exterminationists fought better? It seems unlikely.
From what I remember of Keegan's book about the Battle of Normandy, the SS were pretty hard fighters.
Posted by: M Ali Choudhury at March 25, 2003 5:01 PMLike Goldhagen, but unlike Reagan, I don't make a very big distinction between ordinary Germans and SS thugs. They were interchangable.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at March 25, 2003 7:15 PMSo why will the Special Republican Guard be any more formidable than the Republican Guard?
Posted by: oj at March 25, 2003 10:24 PM