February 3, 2003
HERE BE DRAGONS:
EU must face up to a fractured future (Anatol Lieven, February 2 2003, Financial Times)It may be time to admit that there will never in fact be a common European foreign and security policy. Long before the crisis over Iraq erupted, momentum towards the creation of such a policy was quietly ebbing away. Now the European Union not only is split down the middle on the most important issue of the day but will also, on present form, find itself in the same quandary every time there is a serious possibility of a fundamental breach with the US.In its own region, the EU will have to go on trying at least to achieve common policies and a stronger role in maintaining security - if only because the US is likely to be less committed to doing so - in the Balkans, the west of the former Soviet Union, the Turkish-Greek-Cypriot imbroglio and the Maghreb.
The EU will almost certainly have to abandon any hope of either confronting, or seriously influencing, the US on any issue that a US administration considers of real importance, including the militarisation of space, nuclear proliferation and, above all, Israel. Successful confrontation would require measures more radical than any yet contemplated by European governments, while Tony Blair has demonstrated that even support for the US that entails great domestic political risks brings no extra influence in Washington over matters of substance. [...]
The same can be said about European policies towards the Middle East peace process. Israel has shown that it is impervious to diplomatic pressure. The US has made clear that economic pressure would be seen by the US as tantamount to a European attack on its own vital interests, something Britain and other countries would implacably resist. So here too, barring an appalling convulsion, EU policy is, in effect, paralysed.
Somewhere Margaret Thatcher is looking at the train wreck of Europe and justifiably saying. "I told you so". The real question now is whether her Party has sense enough to withdraw the knife that they aimed at her back but somehow managed to slit their own gullet with. Perhaps the only chance for the Tories to resurrect themselves--since no European party seems capable of opposing the Welfare State--is by returning forthrightly to the Iron Lady's Euroskepticism. What British patriot would yoke his nation's future to a fiction? And a United Europe is, make no mistake about it, a fiction. Posted by Orrin Judd at February 3, 2003 8:00 AM
just like the euro was a fiction, and now look at it, more valuable than the dollar,
Posted by: xavier at February 3, 2003 10:08 AMIn an interesting way the rise of the Euro is a function of the nostalgic overestimation and true insignifigance of Europe. Like China, folks have convinced themselves that a unified Europe will matter economically. But, again like China, they know nothing about the internal prooblems the EU faces and the focus on the US economy crowds out any coverage of those problems. The dollar has dropped despite the US having the only growing economy in the West, and budget problems that are very minor by comparison to other nations.
Posted by: oj at February 3, 2003 10:32 AMIn the last election, the Tory leader William Hague banged on a lot about Europe.
However the electorate didn't really care.
While there is no great love for the EU here, most people are far more concerned with political leaders who can do something about our appalling transport infrastructure and whip our education and health providers into shape.
The EU hasn't had enough impact on people's regular lives to have become a major political issue.
Anyway the current consensus right now seems to be that while the Franco-German-Brussels axis is pretty awful it's still worth persevering and pushing through policies favourable to Britain via alliances with countries like Spain, Italy, Holland and the Scandinavians.
Ali:
I watched Hague on C-Span a few times, once on a call-in tv show from British tv--and people laughed at him because he was so mealy-mouthed about Europe. So long as the Tories mistakenly believe they're competitive, they'll fail to get back to basics--robust national sovereignty, free trade with willing partners across the Atlantic rather than Euro--protectionism, smaller government, privatized social services, lower taxes, traditional morality, a revitalized Church.
Unfortunately I don't think the Tories will get back in power until Labour messes up badly.
And without grassroots activism, the Church is likely to stay as toothless and irrelevant as before.
dream on oj. look at the facts in the economist; the euro ara grew faster in 2001 and 2002 than the US. as for the much-vaunted US economy, it's a confidence trick which relies on foreigners buying US assets, which they are now pulling out of.
Posted by: xavier at February 4, 2003 8:48 AMxavier:
Form is temporary, class is permanent.