January 16, 2003
WHAT OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT?:
The Northern Front (WILLIAM SAFIRE, January 16, 2003, NY Times)An alliance with a price tag is no alliance at all. [...]When the U.S. asked for permission, as required by Turkey's Constitution, to use bases in Turkey from which to stage an invasion, dickering began over how many hundreds of millions of dollars would be provided to upgrade the bases and lengthen landing fields. While this dragged on with no concrete being poured, an economic aid package was sought that Ankara estimates at $5 billion and U.S. sources say is more than double that.
If the Turkish economy, already in deep trouble, takes a hit in the coming war, our ally could legitimately turn to the U.S. as well as to New Iraq's oil resources for recompense. And surely Ankara should make the Turkish public aware of America's interest in cushioning any shock to its major local ally. But the unseemly hard bargaining going on now over money for military assistance is demeaning and could change the nature of the two nations' alliance.
What should Turkey's new leaders do? First, make prompt parliamentary and construction arrangements to welcome the U.S. troops. And then go the extra mile: Volunteer to mass 100,000 Turkish troops on its border with northern Iraq. (When it did this with Syria, which had provided the base for the harassment of Turkey by P.K.K. terrorists, the Syrian dictator got the message and booted the terrorist leader out of Damascus, which led to his capture.)
The real threat of a Turkish Army descending on Baghdad from the north would hasten the surrender of Iraqi generals facing an American army rolling up from Kuwait in the south.
It may be that we would decline a Turkish offer to join the allied invasion, lest the Turks be reluctant to leave oil-rich Kirkuk. But if Turkey acted like a strategic ally rather than a nervous renter of bases, it would have an unwavering superpower on its side for decades to come.
One wonders whether Mr. Safire would apply this standard to Israel too, which is currently dickering over an much increased aid plan, whose implicit rationale is that they'll stay out of the coming Iraq war? Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2003 12:34 PM
Mr. Safire errs on two counts. First, whatever Turkey does for us now would be totally forgotten in two years if a Democrat defeated Bush in 2004. This is the rational timefor them to bargain. Second, the Turkish army is going to occupy the northern Iraq oil centers whether they're part of the coalition or not - in fact, they are already there. The question is whether the US can use Turkish bases and the supply lines from the North to push toward Baghdad.
This will probably be settled outside the public eye; Turkey is divided between the Muslim govt and the pro-US military; the US can't afford a big bribe and so has to make some threats (e.g. independent Kurdistan or fracturing of the alliance) to keep the Turks in line.
Finally, Orrin, Israel is doing a lot more than "staying out". Israel is a key partner in this war, we are using Israeli bases with flyover rights from Jordan, Israeli special forces are in Iraq right now, and if Syria gets into the war, Israel will do most of the fighting.
So it's money well spent.
Posted by: oj at January 16, 2003 1:03 PMMr. Safire's knowledge of history is pathetic. All nations that endure attempt to further their interests at all times. Turkey is Turkey, not the 51st and easternmost of the United States.
Lest we all forget, when the Brits were absolutely up against the wall in 1940-41, we sent them 40 or 50 obsolete destroyers to aid them in their battle agains the German Navy. Oh, by the way, they had to hand over all of their bases in the Caribbean to us. With friends like that...wait, we're still allies with the British to this very day. Never mind. Mr. Safire must not know what he's talking about.
The aid to either country is not money well spent. In Israel, it subsidizes a rotten bureacracy that hampers the economy, and in Turkey it's wasted on corrupt politicians. The better policy would be to institute a bit of welfare reform and tell the both of them to deal with Iraq on their own. After all, it is their
neighborhood, and they have more than enough capacity to deal with Hussein's decrepit military.
Great peoples don't leave the dirty work to others.
Posted by: oj at January 16, 2003 5:58 PMThey do when it's not their mess to begin with.
Posted by: Derek Copold at January 17, 2003 11:28 AM