January 26, 2003
FORCING THE CONTRADICTIONS:
Iraqi Dissidents Meet in Iran to Plan Iraq Entry (ELAINE SCIOLINO, January 26, 2003, NY Times)More than a dozen exiled Iraqi opposition leaders have quietly gathered in Iran to prepare their entry into northern Iraq, in a sign of Iran's increasing involvement in planning for its neighbor's future.Iran's welcome of the opposition leaders, who came at the invitation of a senior Iraqi opposition cleric here, was coupled with an official offer of protection into Iraq, the opposition leaders said. They plan to hold meetings there in an area under Kurdish control and out of reach of the government in Baghdad, to designate a small group that will eventually decide on the shape of a government if Saddam Hussein is ousted.
"We are struggling to determine whether or not an Iraqi leadership that can claim legitimacy can emerge," Kenan Makiya, an author and a Brandeis University professor who is part of the delegation, said in an interview.
Mr. Makiya, who was one of three Iraqi opposition leaders to meet President Bush at the White House this month, added: "The Iranians are actually offering to protect us so we can hold our meetings in northern Iraq. Would you believe that?"
Why would it be surprising that the Iranians want to see Saddam dangling from an overpass by piano wire? Posted by Orrin Judd at January 26, 2003 3:39 PM
No, that's not the surprising - the surprise is going to be what they have in store for us after Saddam's gone. Pakistan may be a problem for our guys in Afghanistan, but Iran could be worse for our guys in Iraq.
Posted by: pj at January 26, 2003 7:27 PMWhose prospects seem worse to you, those of the guys who'll be toppling Saddam or those of the mullahs running an increasingly unruly Iran?
Posted by: oj at January 26, 2003 8:19 PMThe mullahs - and they know it - and they further know that if we establish ourselves and democracy in Iraq, it will inspire their people to revolt and turn our attention squarely to them. That is why I think they may take preemptive action against us.
Posted by: pj at January 26, 2003 9:37 PMAs I say, war forces all the contradictions, that divide between rulers and ruled in Iran may well be one of them and it may in fact get ugly, but that's not necessarily a bad thing in the long run.
Posted by: oj at January 26, 2003 10:20 PMThe Iranian leadership is in a tough position.
But surely it cannot welcome the idea of
large U.S. forces in Iraq.
A couple months ago, the blogosphere was
cheerfully predicting the imminent collapse of
the Iranian government. I said then I didn't
think so, because the bazaar had not joined
the students.
I think most non-Moslems very much underestimate
the comfort and stability the religion brings
to its members. It is folly to think that, given
a choice between democracy/prosperity and
religion, the Iranians will pick democracy/prosperity.
Harry:
I realize you're not a conservative, but you are old enough not to demand instant gratification. If Saddam is gone by the end of the year and the Iranian people take control of their nation over the next couple, that is imminent. You sound like my five year old when he wants a new Thomas train.
OK, I'll check back in 5 years.
Posted by: Harry at January 28, 2003 8:45 PM