January 8, 2003
APOCALYPSE NOW:
Sen. Zell Miller Won't Seek Re-Election (JEFFREY McMURRAY, 1/08/03, Associated Press)Democratic Sen. Zell Miller, a popular former Georgia governor, announced Wednesday he won't seek re-election in 2004 - a move that could complicate Democratic efforts to retake the Senate.
We had this ranked as one of the seats most likely to go to the GOP in 2004 (*see below)--assuming Mr. Miller would leave the Democratic side of the Senate behind, either by retirement or switching parties--but it's still awful news for the Democrats. Had he run for re-election as a Democrat he'd have won. There's no chance they'll hold the seat now, putting a 60 seat majority in realistic range for the GOP.
Even worse, the Democrats are going to have to pummel Cynthia McKinney to make sure she doesn't win this primary. Combined with the demolition job they're going to be doing on Carol Mosley-Braun in IL and on Al Sharpton in the presidential, there's going to be some bad blood between the party and its black base.
*ON TO 2004! (Brothers Judd, 11/05/02):
Well, Election 2002 was more fun than a bag of cats, but enough navel-gazing; time to lift our vision to the future: on to Election 2004! Here are the Senate Democrats who come up for re-election next cycle. Possible retirees are marked with an *; conceivable party-switchers with a +; potential presidential candidates with a #. Ideal GOP opponents are in [brackets], where there are obvious choices. They are ranked in order of vulnerability for a switch of the seat to the GOP by January 2005:
Democrat Class of 2004*Ernest Hollings (SC) (born 1922)
*+Zell Miller (GA) (born 1932)
Barbara Boxer (CA) vs. [Condoleeza Rice (unless she's the VP) or Arnold Schwarzenegger]
Chuck Schumer (NY) vs. [Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki]
#John Edwards (NC)
Blanche Lincoln (AR) vs. [DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson]
*Dan Inouye (HI) (born 1924)
Harry Reid (NV) vs. [Gov. Guinn]
Patty Murray (WA) vs. [Rep. Jennifer Dunn]
#Russ Feingold (WI) vs. [HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson]
Byron Dorgan (ND)
#Tom Daschle (SD) vs. [John Thune]
+Bob Graham (FL) vs. [Jeb Bush or HUD Secratary Mel Martinez]
+John Breaux (LA)
+#Evan Bayh (IN) vs. [Dan Quayle]
Barbara Mikulski (MD)
Ron Wyden (OR)
#Chris Dodd (CT) vs. [Governor John Rowland]
Patrick Leahy (VT) vs. [Lt. Governor Brian Dubie]
What's most notable here may be the quality of candidate that you could put up against some of the seemingly safest incumbents at the bottom of the chart. At any rate, at least the first seven seats--and maybe the first ten--look extremely difficult to defend (though Zell Miller will win in a walkover if he runs again as a Democrat). If George W. Bush were to replace Dick Cheney on the ticket with Condoleeza Rice or J.C. Watts and were riding a growing economy and some further successes in the war on radical Islamism, the pieces would be in place for significant gains downticket in the 2004 election. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 8, 2003 5:52 PM
I told
you that he wouldn't switch. Er, not that this is why
I thought he wouldn't switch, and in fact, I thought he'd run again, and... well, guess I'm not that smart after all.
It's really too bad. Folks around here love him, and from what I've seen, with good reason.
Orrin, I hope you're right about Rep prospects, but I can't see HI electing a Republican, I think with Reid in Dem leadership that's tough, GA isn't a slam dunk (e.g. Roy Barnes would win for the Dems), Boxer has to be favored in CA against a neophyte Republican. The campaign laws are rigged in favor of incumbents so Schumer, Lincoln, et al have to be favored. I think the Reps will pick up seats, but 2 seems most likely.
Posted by: pj at January 8, 2003 5:45 PMIf HI's new Republican governor is doing a good job it could give the whole party new life there.
Reid is going to have to run at least 10 points, maybe more, ahead of his party's nominee and he was nearly knocked off last cycle.
Boxer may quit to run for governor.
Barnes just got whipped in the Governor's race--why would he do better for the Senate?
If Guiliani runs he'll certainly beat Schumer.
Lincoln will have to run as much as 15% better than the Democrat's presidential nominee and Senators are always most vulnerable in their first re-election bid.
oj and pj both have points - GA could be a GOP pickup but they'll need a decent candidate to beat Barnes (let's hope McKinney is the Dem nominee). As for other states good GOP candidates plus a solid Bush win could mean the pickup of a handful of seats.
Posted by: AWW at January 8, 2003 8:59 PMPJ:
Barnes would not
win in Georgia. You have no idea what the folks around here think of that guy. It's not just the flag, it's not just the teachers, it's not just the bloody gambling machines, it's not just the Northern Arc -- it's all
of it. For such a political superstar, he had a fantastic knack for irritating the snot out of everyone.
Georgia's an odd state, in that the Republican area's in the northern, more metropolitan area, and the more rural (everything else) area is very Democrat -- and down where I am, it was hard going to find a Roy Barnes sign up until about a week before the election. He lost his base. Badly.
I should point out, though, that I'm not yet convinced, this most recent election notwithstanding, that the Georgia GOP is competent to tie its own shoelaces. A century of complete incompetence is something you don't shake off in one election cycle.
Posted by: Christopher Badeaux at January 8, 2003 9:08 PMChristoper - I am a fellow Georgian (Alpharetta), and you are absolutely right about Roy Barnes. No way will he even be the Democratic nominee for the Senate seat.
Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at January 9, 2003 7:50 AMAnyway, from what I understand, he retired from active politics.
Posted by: Christopher Badeaux at January 9, 2003 11:32 AMIf I was nominating GOP replacements for Miller, I'd go with Linder. He always talked like he was a Senator anyway, and Bob Barr would probably retain that seat in the House for the GOP.
Posted by: Tom Roberts at January 9, 2003 8:21 PM