54, 40 & FIGHT:

FR: Matthew Dowd, Senior Adviser, Republican National Committee

RE: President Bush Approval Numbers

Much has been discussed about the President's "falling" poll numbers and what he needs to do in the State of the Union Address to fix this situation. Democratic leaning pundit Paul Krugman with NY Times referred today to President Bush's "plummeting" poll numbers in the last few months. Here are some facts:

1. Bush approval numbers have "plummeted" all of three points since election day nearly three months ago. His Gallup approval numbers were 63% before election day and today in most recent Gallup poll they are 60%. As we have said, they are right where we thought they would be after a high point nearly 18 months ago.

2. Former President Reagan was re-elected in a landslide with a 58% job approval. Former President Clinton won re-election overwhelmingly with a 54% job approval. No president has been defeated with a job approval above 50%.

3. State of the Union addresses at this point in Presidents' terms don't usually move numbers on job approval. In 1983, Reagan's job approval went from 37% before the speech to 35% after the speech on Gallup job approval. In 1991, Bush job approval went from 83% before the speech to 74% after the speech. And in 1995, the media's great orator Clinton went from 47% before the speech to 49% after the speech.

I hope this provides some much needed perspective.
54% in November 2004 should be good for 40 states as long as the fight's going well.