December 5, 2002
TURNOUT EXPERT?:
Race Pits Turnout Against Tune Out: Landrieu Battles GOP Onslaught (Chris Cillizza, December 05, 2002, Roll Call)With polls showing the race tightening, Democrats are growing increasingly nervous about Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D-La.) prospects in her Saturday runoff election with state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell (R).A lack of enthusiasm for Landrieu among black voters, coupled with a massive fundraising edge amassed by Republicans, form the basis of the Democrats' fears.
Donna Brazile, one of the leading strategists and turnout experts in the Democratic Party, said she was "alarmed that there was a great deal of apathy in the African-American community" despite the fact that "99.5 percent" of black elected officials are behind Landrieu. [...]
Polling released in the race bears out the key role blacks will play in deciding Landrieu's future.
A SouthernMedia and OpinionResearch survey that had a sample equally divided between black and white voters showed Landrieu with a comfortable 18-point margin.
Another survey conducted by the GOP firm the AndersonGroup placed Terrell ahead by 4 points, with black voters comprising 25 percent of the sample.
The most recent polling done in the race, by the University of New Orleans, showed Landrieu with a statistically insignificant 1-point lead over Terrell with 29 percent of the sample black.
Blacks make up nearly 33 percent of the state's population, according to the 2000 Census, and Brazile said she is hoping that they will make up one-quarter of the runoff electorate.
Did Ms Brazile not notice that her candidate loses if blacks make up only a quarter of the vote? Posted by Orrin Judd at December 5, 2002 4:14 PM
Only 99.5% of black LA elected officials endorse Landrieu? I want to learn more about that 0.5% They must be 1 or 2 of the more couragious Louisianians out there.
Posted by: John Beckwith at December 5, 2002 3:57 PMWhy does Donna Brazile still have a job with the Dems?
It's not like she's been very successful.
Whay am I fuzzy on my dates here? The Louisiana vote is the 8th? The Iraqi "full disclosure' is the 7th, which will dominate the news cycle.
Which party benefits when we find out that Saddam is a liar and Bush is on him like a cheap uniform? I think the courageous 0.5% are getting with a winner.
Tom, I think you got the dates backwards.
Posted by: JW at December 6, 2002 12:33 AMIn re: what about the other .5%?
Don't think that courage has anything to do with it. Probably the Landrieus crossed that .5% at sometime in the past and in LA that is a reason to hate them in perpetuity.
The Iraqi disclosure date was timed to coincide with the end of Ramadan, not the Louisiana elections.
Posted by: pj at December 6, 2002 8:08 AM