December 3, 2002

THE 52ND SENATOR:

University survey shows Landrieu and Terrell in dead heat (The Associated Press, 12/2/02)
A University of New Orleans poll released Monday showed Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu and Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell in a dead heat in their race for the U.S. Senate.

In the survey of 700 registered voters statewide, 44 percent said they would vote for Landrieu, 43 percent said they would vote for Terrell and 13 percent were undecided. The poll had a sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percent. [...]

The poll showed a sharp split along racial lines. Terrell had 56 percent of the white vote to 31 percent for Landrieu, while Landrieu had 75 percent of the black vote to 10 percent for Terrell.

The abortion issue also split voters, with Landrieu getting 55 percent of votes from those who said abortion should always be legal. Terrell took 61 percent of voters who said abortion should never be legal. Terrell took 58 percent and Landrieu 31 percent of those who said abortion should sometimes be legal.

White people who identified themselves as Independent said they would vote for Terrell by 52 percent to 31 percent. Pollsters said the strong Independent response for Terrell was likely connected to President Bush's popularity and the Republican victories across the country in the Nov. 5 elections.


The daunting number here for Ms Landrieu is that she's so far below 50%. Realistically, what are voters going to suddenly find out about her in the next six days to make them change their minds and support her after six years? Posted by Orrin Judd at December 3, 2002 1:01 AM
Comments

I couldn't agree more. So long as Terrell doesn't say or do something really stupid (think Clayton Williams in Texas a few years back), she looks to be in pretty good shape to me.

Posted by: Kevin Whited at December 3, 2002 8:50 AM

Any poll taken by an institute of higher learning may be taken with a very large grain of salt.



I believe the erstwhile encumbant senator's numbers are much worse than the media is letting on.



After the president's visit, I hope a lot of the undecided, decide to vote Rebublican.



How sweet it is!

Posted by: erp at December 3, 2002 9:57 AM

Washington Times has an article today saying Landreau is complaining about all of the GOP firepower against her (i.e. President visit, VP visit, Guiliani) and is trying to turn this against Terrell by saying she won't represent LA. Can't see how this will work - perhaps Landreau is sensing the same result as erp is.

Posted by: AWW at December 3, 2002 11:37 AM

Wouldn't bet the house, but I might bet a nickel on Terrell. This poll gave some demos on their sample: 29% black, 55% female. A very Landrieu-friendly 700, in other words.



If Mary can't get above 44% on this sample, she's in trouble. White indies are splitting heavily against her, an ominous leading indicator for the undecideds. It's real close, but the brunette could just ease past the blonde.



Sexist as all get out, ain't I?

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 3, 2002 3:27 PM

No, the white indies aren't anywhere close to the West Indies. If Mary could run in the Windies (cricket term) she'd win 90-10.

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 3, 2002 3:35 PM
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