December 16, 2002
JUST MILD ABOUT HARRY'S CHANCES:
Early Line in Nevada: GOP Wants Gibbons to Ante Up Against Reid (Ben Pershing, December 16, 2002 , Roll Call)Last time around, he won by 428 votes. In 2004, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) hopes to have a little more breathing room. Though it's still two years away, Reid's race for a fourth term is sure to be one of the most closely watched contests of the cycle. As the Democrat prepares to make the transition from Majority Whip back to Minority Whip, Republicans in the Silver State are trying to determine who from among their ranks will put up the best fight.The early money is on 2nd district Rep. Jim Gibbons (R), who is being encouraged by Republicans in Nevada and Washington to challenge Reid. Democrats believe he is a strong bet to run. [...]
Nevada sources said the Bush administration has actively courted Gibbons to run against Reid and that the lawmaker met with White House strategist Karl Rove last week to discuss the subject. (Both Gibbons and Rove attended Sparks High School in Nevada, though not at the same time.) [...]
Gov. Kenny Guinn would be a dream GOP candidate, but he appears unlikely to run.
Democrats acknowledge that Gibbons would make an attractive candidate. Born and raised in Sparks, Gibbons, who turns 58 today, was a decorated Air Force pilot during the Vietnam War. He then served as a commercial airline pilot until his election to the Nevada Assembly in 1988.
Gibbons resigned that post in 1990 to serve in the Gulf War, after which he returned to the Legislature. He was the GOP nominee for governor in 1994, losing to incumbent Bob Miller (D) 53 percent to 41 percent. Gibbons won the seat in 1996 and has been comfortably re-elected three times, taking 74 percent of the vote against Travis Souza (D) this year.
This is the kind of seat that a popular incumbent president tends to carry with him, particularly when his party puts up a good challenger and the president carries the state by as wide a margin as W's likely to carry NV. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 16, 2002 9:42 AM
NV could be a GOP pickup in 2004. A possible fly in the ointment is the Yucca mountain decision. If I remember correctly a lot of Nevadians weren't happy with Bush for this decision and it may be enough to offset his popularity impact.
Posted by: AWW at December 16, 2002 1:46 PMWhere will the Democrat presidential candidate say he wants to move it?
Posted by: oj at December 16, 2002 2:19 PMMr. Judd;
"Another state, pending a thorough investigation by a non-partisan blue ribbon panel empowered to consider all options".
Just because there is no alternative doesn't mean that people won't shoot the messenger who brings the bad news.
Posted by: pj at December 16, 2002 2:53 PMOJ - AOG's right they would be vague but if pinned down they would choose Texas (for obvious reasons). Their second choice would be Florida but given Gore "really won" Florida they wouldn't want to alienate Florida and therefore would another heavy Republican state like Montana/Wyoming.
Posted by: AWW at December 16, 2002 3:13 PMIf I recall, Bush didn't win Nevada by all that much in 2000. That combined with Yucca (which I heard was more than just a mild irritation) makes me all but write off Nevada in 2004. As pointed out, the Dems don't even need to say where it'll go, they just need to remind Nevada that Bush lied when he said that he wouldn't put the waste there*.
RAW
*- I don't know what Bush said to them on the campaign trail, but the perception out there at least is that he lied, which is obviously not good.
Anyone care to bet on the margin in NV? I'll take Bush >8%
Posted by: oj at December 16, 2002 7:10 PMNo, but I hope you're right!
Posted by: R. Alex at December 17, 2002 10:39 AM49-46...Bush won by 22,000 votes.
Posted by: JW at December 17, 2002 10:28 PM