December 10, 2002
I JUST KNOW THERE'S A PONY IN THERE SOMEWHERE:
Calling ET: We're still waiting for a real signal from an extraterrestrial intelligence (Joseph Lazio, December 09, 2002, Scientific American)Anybody who has experienced a momentary disruption in a cell phone conversation knows that the first task is to verify that the other party is still on the line. Researchers in the pursuit of evidence for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) have found themselves on the tantalizing brink of making what appears to be first contact on a number of occasions, only to be unable to verify that they have found a real signal--that is, someone at the other end of the line. (For more on the importance of data in estimating ET civilizations, see "Quantifying ET.")Recently the Planetary Society's Megachannel Extraterrestrial Assay (META) found 11 apparent transmissions. Intriguingly, these 11 candidate transmissions tended to be located in or near the plane of the Milky Way's spiral disk, just as one might expect if the transmissions originated from stars in our galaxy. In addition, in 1977, as part of its SETI program, the Ohio State University telescope affectionately known as the "Big Ear" picked up what appeared to be a boomingly loud transmission. The operator on duty was so excited, he wrote "Wow!" on the paper record of the observation.
Unfortunately, all attempts to verify these candidates--and others from various SETI programs--have failed. As Carl Sagan wrote, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Without more evidence than a single detection, SETI researchers are unwilling to cite any candidate as evidence of ET transmissions. Before dismissing these examples too hastily, though, many astronomers--including myself--have suggested that we should also consider whether these might represent real ET transmissions that were not verified because they were corrupted or modified during their journey to Earth.
Maybe Hollus is coming. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 10, 2002 8:11 AM
Hollus
looks very interesting. I'll have to pick it up. I'll note that a good book reviewer (i.e. one that broadly shares the same tastes as me - heh!) is a rare find. So far, Bros Judd and Imus qualify....
As far as that attribution to Carl Sagan, most of my engineer friends and I were first dazzled by it, but after some argument we pooh-poohed it. It should be reduced to 'Claims require evidence'. To label something as extraordinary starts the weltanschauung
machinery up, and probably would lead you to miss something.
"Before dismissing these examples too hastily, though, many astronomers--including myself--have suggested that we should also consider whether these might represent real ET transmissions that were not verified because they were corrupted or modified during their journey to Earth. "
Or, maybe he should reexamine the assumptions behind his belief that this effort will have any positive results. One thing the pro-ET types always assume is that there are lots of candidates out there, based on the assumption that we can't possibly be unique. To support their position, they cite contrived equations that multiply unknown values to arrive at the conclusion that there must be "billions and billions" of civilizations out there whose goal in life is to broadcast a cosmic "can you hear me? Can you hear me now?"