December 22, 2002
FRIEDMAN'S DOMINO THEORY:
The Last Cartoon (THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, December 22, 2002, NY Times)[U]nlike Gulf War I, too many nations don't want Gulf War II to happen. Think about it. Egypt got two-thirds of its debts to the West forgiven for participating in Gulf War I. But today Egypt is terrified about a popular backlash against a Gulf War II, and Cairo is refusing to participate. Syria reportedly got paid $1 billion from Saudi Arabia for joining Gulf War I, but the autocratic regime in Damascus has no interest in Gulf War II, because it could be the next target. Turkey got $3 billion for its help in Gulf War I, but it will only get a huge headache from Gulf War II - which will choke its critical trade with Iraq and possibly bring a huge influx of Kurdish refugees across the Iraq-Turkey border.Iran enjoyed watching Saddam get shellacked in Gulf War I, but the last thing the Iranian hard-liners want now is Saddam toppled and a pro-U.S. Iraqi democracy next door. Saudi Arabia had to fight Gulf War I to survive. But Saudi public opinion today is strongly against this war. Ditto the Russians and Europeans, who certainly are not keen on Iraq becoming part of pax Americana, with all the economic benefits that could entail.
Did I miss something, or did Mr. Friedman just, in essence, make the most hawkish case for war? We should take Turkey's concerns seriously and help them in any way we can, but if war with Saddam will really benefit Iraq and destabilize Iran, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia then what are waiting for? Posted by Orrin Judd at December 22, 2002 8:34 AM
Well, that's what Pipes said a couple months
ago. Asked if he didn't think war with Iraq
might not spread, he said yes. Asked if he
thought that would be a bad thing, he said
no.
Orrin, who pretends not to believe in progress,
apparently believes that upheavel in the
Middle East will result in progress. How about
that?
Let's see. There have been several upheavals
there over the past two centuries. How many
resulted in progress?
Harry:
It won't make them better societies than they were 800 years ago, but better than they are today.
They weren't any good 800 years ago, and they are not going to improve, for the same reason that they were no good then.
Well, make that 725 years ago, when, according to Bernard Lewis, the ulema decided against any further accumulation of knowledge in dar[-al-Islam.