A GLIMMER:

Analysis: Kenya at the crossroads (Andrew Harding, 26 December, 2002, BBC)

His picture hangs in every shop, his face graces every bank note.

But after 24 years of almost absolute power, President Daniel arap Moi is about to be shunted aside in a closely-fought general election marking, if all goes well, the very first democratic transfer of power in Kenyan history.

Many Kenyans still find it hard to believe that the 78-year-old Moi is finally stepping down, especially since he may well have to hand over power to an opposition alliance which has emerged as the clear front-runner in recent polls.

But the former headmaster, one of Africa's last so-called "Big Men" seems resolute. [...]

Above all, the campaign has been characterised by an overwhelming desire for change, a popular thirst for an end to the corruption and inertia which has slowly strangled this vibrant, spectacular country and left well over half the population in deep poverty.

President Moi, aware perhaps that his place in history will largely be determined by what happens over the next few days, has promised a "smooth" transition.

You know, Africa is such a mess and has been for so long that it's easy to just ignore a story like this. How many reasonably honest elections and peaceful and sustainable transfers of power has the entire continent seen since de-colonialization? But comes word today: Early lead for Kenyan opposition (BBC, 28 December, 2002)

Unofficial results from Kenya's presidential elections give the main opposition candidate, Mwai Kibaki, a comfortable early lead. [...]

Mr Kibaki has 72% of the presidential vote, according to the Institute for Education in Democracy (IED), a Kenyan non-governmental organisation, which advises the electoral commission. [...]

The BBC's Gray Phombeah in the coastal resort of Mombasa reports that opposition supporters have been celebrating their apparent victory in the town, throughout the night.

"It appears that we are on the eve of a historic victory. This is the Christmas gift Narc promised Kenyans," said Raila Odinga a senior figure in Mr Kibaki's National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).

It's way too early to get excited about this, but if, a few months down the road, the new government does appear to be reforming the country, the EU should do everything it can to help them. Africa badly needs a couple success stories. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 28, 2002 6:48 AM