A BAND-AID FOR A HEMOPHILIAC:

Does Schroeder Have Political Capital to Reform Economy? (MARK LANDLER, November 30, 2002, NY Times)

For more than four years, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has promised to tackle the chronic ailments, like high labor costs, that have sapped the German economy. Now, with his popularity tanking and the economy tipping toward its second recession in a year, the question arises with new urgency: Can he reform Germany?

For Mr. Schroeder, the troubles of Europe's largest economy have ended the honeymoon of his second election before it even began. Newspapers are comparing the country's political drift and economic malaise to Japan's. Some experts warn of a decade of stagnation.

Pressure to address the problems are coming not just from Germans, but also from the country's European Union partners, who worry that Mr. Schroeder's troubles could quickly become theirs.

If Germany falls sick, economists fear, it could infect the Continent, undermining its fledgling currency, the euro, and the grand task of European Union enlargement. It could even act as a drag on the global economy at a time when the United States is barely keeping its own economic footing.

"I haven't seen a situation this bad in my 25 years in political life," said Oswald Metzger, an expert on budget issues for the Greens, who left Parliament after the election and has become a harsh critic of Mr.
Schroeder. "The government is offering no long-term vision of how we are going to emerge from this period."

Many fear that Germany, like Japan, will muddle along for years before its leaders muster the courage, or the political wherewithal, to push through reforms. Foremost among them are proposals to make it easier for companies to hire and fire workers and for the government to scale back one of the world's coziest welfare states.

A decade? Where's the evidence that Japan has reversed its decline? Note what's completely absent from this article? The birth rate of 1.39 children born/woman (2002 est.), which is comparable to Japan's 1.42 children born/woman (2002 est.), and stands in stark contrast to America's 2.07 children born/woman (2002 est.) . Until the Europeans and Japanese (not to mention our own media) reckon with these numbers, which they show absolutely no sign of doing, these nations will continue to decline. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 1, 2002 6:15 AM